Cardiff City 5:1 Watford: xG & match report · Championship

Tuesday, 13/10/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Championship

Cardiff City Home 3.67 xG · 23 shots

Watford Away 1.46 xG · 14 shots

51 The scoreline reflected the chances

Cardiff City were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 60%. They won 5–1. The biggest difference was Cardiff City's attack: 3.67 xG against 2.02 projected (+1.65). Watford produced 1.46 xG against 1.02 projected (+0.44).

Goals

11' Jack Moylan (pen.) Cardiff City · 0.82 xG chance 1–0
35' Jack Moylan Cardiff City · 0.26 xG chance 2–0
41' Matthew Pollock (o.g.) Cardiff City 3–0
45' Ollie Tanner Cardiff City · 0.05 xG chance 4–0
85' Callum Robinson Cardiff City · 0.19 xG chance 5–0
87' Hector Kyprianou Watford · 0.31 xG chance 5–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Cardiff City: 60% What happened
Draw: 24%
Watford: 16%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 9 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Cardiff City 2.02 3.67 +1.65

Watford 1.02 1.46 +0.44

Cardiff City produced 1.65 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Cardiff City Watford

Shots: 23; 14
On target: 11; 4
Inside the box: 14; 10
xG per shot: 0.16; 0.10
Open play xG: 2.02; 1.05
Set-piece xG: 0.08; 0.33
Penalties: 2; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.10 for Cardiff City and 1.39 for Watford.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

37 shots · 5.12 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Cardiff City
Watford
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Cardiff City

1.84 xG created 1.57 xGA

L 0.60 created, 2.09 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
L 1.37 created, 2.07 conceded against Portsmouth
D 3.60 created, 1.11 conceded against Stoke City
L 1.79 created, 0.48 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
W 2.60 created, 1.26 conceded against Charlton Athletic
L 1.05 created, 2.42 conceded against Blackburn Rovers

Watford

0.86 xG created 1.87 xGA

L 0.88 created, 2.71 conceded against Swansea City
L 1.26 created, 1.14 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
W 1.44 created, 2.48 conceded against Preston North End
L 0.39 created, 1.50 conceded against Stoke City
L 0.57 created, 1.47 conceded against Bristol City
L 0.64 created, 1.94 conceded against Burnley

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

2 qualified edges flagged1 won1 lost

Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Cardiff City against Watford before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.63	+3.4%	Lost
Watford at most 1 goal	1.40	+1.8%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Cardiff City	60.3%	58.2%	+2.0 pp	1.66
Draw	24.2%	22.9%	+1.2 pp	4.14
Watford	15.6%	18.8%	−3.3 pp	6.43

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Cardiff City to score	88.9%	88.1%	+0.8 pp	1.12
Cardiff City not to score	11.1%	11.9%	−0.8 pp	9.01
Watford to score	66.9%	68.7%	−1.8 pp	1.49
Watford not to score	33.1%	31.3%	+1.8 pp	3.02
Both teams to score	60.8%	62.5%	−1.7 pp	1.64
Both teams not to score	39.2%	37.5%	+1.7 pp	2.55
Cardiff City 2+ goals	62.3%	62.5%	−0.2 pp	1.60
Cardiff City at most 1 goal	37.7%	37.5%	+0.2 pp	2.65
Watford 2+ goals	27.3%	33.7%	−6.5 pp	3.67
Watford at most 1 goal	72.7%	66.3%	+6.5 pp	1.37
Over 1.5 goals	84.5%	82.8%	+1.7 pp	1.18
Under 1.5 goals	15.5%	17.2%	−1.7 pp	6.45
Over 2.5 goals	60.6%	63.6%	−3.0 pp	1.65
Under 2.5 goals	39.4%	36.4%	+3.0 pp	2.54

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Cardiff City sample: 9 matches
Watford sample: 20 matches
Computed: 2 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Cardiff City has only 9 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.