Watford 1:2 Stoke City: xG & match report · Championship

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Championship

Watford Home 0.39 xG · 6 shots

Stoke City Away 1.50 xG · 18 shots

12 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

45' Jack McGlynn Stoke City · 0.09 xG chance 0–1
57' Eric Bocat Stoke City · 0.07 xG chance 0–2
90' Amin Nabizada Watford · 0.02 xG chance 1–2

The shots behind it

Watford Stoke City

Shots: 6; 18
On target: 2; 6
Inside the box: 4; 10
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.08
Open play xG: 0.16; 1.34
Set-piece xG: 0.23; 0.02
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.38 for Stoke City.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

24 shots · 1.74 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Watford
Stoke City
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Watford

1.11 xG created 1.81 xGA

W 0.81 created, 1.71 conceded against Southampton
D 0.65 created, 1.92 conceded against Wrexham
D 1.60 created, 0.89 conceded against West Ham United
L 0.88 created, 2.71 conceded against Swansea City
L 1.26 created, 1.14 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
W 1.44 created, 2.48 conceded against Preston North End

Stoke City

0.98 xG created 1.88 xGA

L 0.65 created, 0.62 conceded against Swansea City
L 0.93 created, 2.32 conceded against Southampton
L 0.83 created, 2.66 conceded against Wolverhampton
W 0.22 created, 1.44 conceded against Norwich City
W 2.14 created, 0.61 conceded against Charlton Athletic
D 1.11 created, 3.60 conceded against Cardiff City

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Watford: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.