Southampton 3:1 Birmingham City: xG & match report · Championship

Saturday, 06/12/2025 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Championship

Southampton Home 2.08 xG · 18 shots

Birmingham City Away 2.01 xG · 22 shots

31 The chances were evenly matched

Goals

6' Finn Azaz Southampton · 0.08 xG chance 1–0
24' Adam Armstrong Southampton · 0.02 xG chance 2–0
54' Demarai Gray Birmingham City · 0.03 xG chance 2–1
58' Adam Armstrong Southampton · 0.60 xG chance 3–1

The shots behind it

Southampton Birmingham City

Shots: 18; 22
On target: 8; 4
Inside the box: 9; 14
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.09
Open play xG: 1.78; 0.63
Set-piece xG: 0.39; 1.38
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.12 for Southampton.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

40 shots · 4.17 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Southampton
Birmingham City
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Southampton

1.75 xG created 1.28 xGA

L 0.53 created, 2.24 conceded against Preston North End
W 0.68 created, 1.68 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
W 1.03 created, 0.81 conceded against Sheffield Wednesday
W 4.63 created, 0.67 conceded against Charlton Athletic
W 2.41 created, 0.44 conceded against Leicester City
L 1.20 created, 1.83 conceded against Millwall

Birmingham City

1.98 xG created 0.67 xGA

W 3.11 created, 0.23 conceded against Portsmouth
W 1.74 created, 0.12 conceded against Millwall
L 1.20 created, 0.61 conceded against Middlesbrough
W 3.56 created, 1.28 conceded against Norwich City
D 0.99 created, 0.77 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
W 1.26 created, 1.03 conceded against Watford

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.