Stoke City 3:3 Ipswich Town: xG & match report · Championship

Tuesday, 10/03/2026 at 21:00

Full time

Match report · Championship

Stoke City Home 3.43 xG · 15 shots

Ipswich Town Away 1.48 xG · 18 shots

33 Stoke City had the better chances, but it finished level

Goals

35' Milan Smit Stoke City · 0.48 xG chance 1–0
44' Jun-Ho Bae Stoke City · 0.38 xG chance 2–0
49' Eric Bocat (o.g.) Ipswich Town 2–1
64' Jack Taylor Ipswich Town · 0.08 xG chance 2–2
82' George Hirst Ipswich Town · 0.26 xG chance 2–3
90' Milan Smit (pen.) Stoke City · 0.82 xG chance 3–3

The shots behind it

Stoke City Ipswich Town

Shots: 15; 18
On target: 6; 6
Inside the box: 9; 13
xG per shot: 0.24; 0.08
Open play xG: 2.77; 0.95
Set-piece xG: 0.05; 0.54
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.87 for Stoke City and 1.48 for Ipswich Town.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

33 shots · 5.13 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Stoke City
Ipswich Town
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Stoke City

0.86 xG created 1.51 xGA

D 0.38 created, 0.34 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
L 0.50 created, 2.31 conceded against Charlton Athletic
D 1.75 created, 1.44 conceded against Leicester City
W 1.51 created, 1.46 conceded against Oxford United
L 0.21 created, 2.33 conceded against Coventry City
L 0.82 created, 1.15 conceded against Swansea City

Ipswich Town

1.30 xG created 0.93 xGA

W 1.27 created, 1.03 conceded against Derby County
L 0.81 created, 2.09 conceded against Wrexham
W 1.12 created, 1.68 conceded against Watford
W 1.18 created, 0.36 conceded against Swansea City
W 1.54 created, 0.27 conceded against Hull City
D 1.85 created, 0.18 conceded against Leicester City

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Stoke City: 0 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Ipswich Town 1:0 Stoke City 10/12/2025 xG 0.93 – 0.33

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.