Sunday, 29/11/2026 at 13:00
38d 10h to kick-offSwansea City – Cardiff City
Model updated 22 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Swansea City
- 44%
- Draw
- 29%
- Cardiff City
- 27%
| Swansea City | Draw | Cardiff City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.26 | 3.44 | 3.75 |
- Total goals
- 2.80
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score
- 62%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Swansea City
44% Swansea City to win
- Attack
- 11th vs 20th
- Swansea City attack v Cardiff City defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 4th
- Swansea City defence v Cardiff City attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.30 vs +0.69
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.59 – 1.22
- Swansea City v Cardiff City
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Swansea City | Cardiff City |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.60 · 8th | (better) 1.88 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.14 · 3rd | 1.63 · 19th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.46 · 7th | +0.25 · 9th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.63 · 7th | 1.51 · 9th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.30 | (better) +0.69 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Swansea City clean sheet
- 27%
- Swansea City 2+ goals
- 49%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score: no
- 38%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.5%
- 2:1
- 10.8%
- 1:2
- 8.1%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Swansea City sample
- 20 matches
- Cardiff City sample
- 11 matches
- Home xG sample · Swansea City
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Cardiff City
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Thursday, 22/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.