Saturday, 21/11/2026 at 16:00
30d 17h to kick-offSwansea City – West Bromwich Albion
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Swansea City
- 42%
- Draw
- 33%
- West Bromwich Albion
- 25%
| Swansea City | Draw | West Bromwich Albion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.37 | 3.05 | 4.00 |
- Total goals
- 2.27
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40%
- Both teams to score
- 51%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Swansea City
42% Swansea City to win
- Attack
- 11th vs 9th
- Swansea City attack v West Bromwich Albion defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 15th
- Swansea City defence v West Bromwich Albion attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.30 vs 0.00
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.30 – 0.97
- Swansea City v West Bromwich Albion
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Swansea City | West Bromwich Albion |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.60 · 8th | 1.29 · 14th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.14 · 3rd | 1.44 · 13th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.46 · 7th | -0.15 · 15th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.63 · 7th | 1.25 · 15th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.30 | +0.00 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 38% of the model's distribution.
- Swansea City clean sheet
- 35%
- Swansea City 2+ goals
- 38%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 60%
- Both teams to score: no
- 49%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.9%
- 1:0
- 11.0%
- 0:0
- 10.4%
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Swansea City sample
- 20 matches
- West Bromwich Albion sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Swansea City
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · West Bromwich Albion
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.