Saturday, 21/11/2026 at 13:30
30d 16h to kick-offNorwich City – Cardiff City
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Norwich City
- 41%
- Draw
- 29%
- Cardiff City
- 30%
| Norwich City | Draw | Cardiff City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.42 | 3.49 | 3.33 |
- Total goals
- 2.93
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Norwich City
41% Norwich City to win
- Attack
- 12th vs 20th
- Norwich City attack v Cardiff City defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 4th
- Norwich City defence v Cardiff City attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.89 vs +0.69
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.58 – 1.35
- Norwich City v Cardiff City
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Norwich City | Cardiff City |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.47 · 10th | (better) 1.88 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.60 · 17th | 1.63 · 19th |
| xGD / match | -0.14 · 14th | (better) +0.25 · 9th |
| xPts / match | 1.26 · 14th | (better) 1.51 · 9th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.89 | (better) +0.69 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Norwich City clean sheet
- 23%
- Norwich City 2+ goals
- 48%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score: no
- 36%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.9%
- 2:1
- 10.4%
- 1:2
- 8.7%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Norwich City sample
- 20 matches
- Cardiff City sample
- 11 matches
- Home xG sample · Norwich City
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Cardiff City
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.