Watford 3:2 Norwich City: xG & match report · Championship

Saturday, 06/12/2025 at 13:30

Full time

Match report · Championship

Watford Home 1.28 xG · 13 shots

Norwich City Away 1.88 xG · 15 shots

32 The result went against the chances

Goals

11' Josh Sargent Norwich City · 0.18 xG chance 0–1
33' Luca Kjerrumgaard Watford · 0.11 xG chance 1–1
45' Oscar Schwartau Norwich City · 0.62 xG chance 1–2
61' Luca Kjerrumgaard Watford · 0.11 xG chance 2–2
78' Tom Ince Watford · 0.24 xG chance 3–2

The shots behind it

Watford Norwich City

Shots: 13; 15
On target: 6; 4
Inside the box: 8; 8
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.13
Open play xG: 0.51; 1.70
Set-piece xG: 0.76; 0.28
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.28 for Watford and 1.97 for Norwich City.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

28 shots · 3.25 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Watford
Norwich City
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Watford

1.14 xG created 0.98 xGA

W 0.92 created, 0.79 conceded against Middlesbrough
D 0.35 created, 1.43 conceded against Ipswich Town
D 1.39 created, 0.77 conceded against Bristol City
W 1.47 created, 0.62 conceded against Derby County
D 1.70 created, 0.98 conceded against Preston North End
L 1.03 created, 1.26 conceded against Birmingham City

Norwich City

1.42 xG created 1.72 xGA

L 2.52 created, 1.26 conceded against Hull City
D 1.68 created, 2.08 conceded against Sheffield Wednesday
L 0.30 created, 1.59 conceded against Leicester City
L 1.28 created, 3.56 conceded against Birmingham City
D 1.42 created, 0.82 conceded against Oxford United
W 1.31 created, 1.02 conceded against Queens Park Rangers

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.