Derby County 2:3 Watford: xG & match report · Championship

Saturday, 22/11/2025 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Championship

Derby County Home 0.62 xG · 9 shots

Watford Away 1.47 xG · 14 shots

23 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

36' Dion Sanderson Derby County · 0.08 xG chance 1–0
54' Sondre Langås Derby County · 0.15 xG chance 2–0
61' Luca Kjerrumgaard Watford · 0.06 xG chance 2–1
85' Edo Kayembe (pen.) Watford · 0.82 xG chance 2–2
88' Edo Kayembe Watford · 0.10 xG chance 2–3

The shots behind it

Derby County Watford

Shots: 9; 14
On target: 2; 4
Inside the box: 6; 7
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.11
Open play xG: 0.23; 0.38
Set-piece xG: 0.29; 0.31
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.52 for Derby County and 0.68 for Watford.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

23 shots · 2.04 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Derby County
Watford
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Derby County

1.14 xG created 1.37 xGA

L 0.25 created, 2.17 conceded against Oxford United
W 0.95 created, 1.11 conceded against Norwich City
W 1.67 created, 0.38 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
W 2.15 created, 2.16 conceded against Sheffield United
W 0.84 created, 1.28 conceded against Hull City
W 0.95 created, 1.09 conceded against Blackburn Rovers

Watford

1.26 xG created 1.17 xGA

L 1.09 created, 2.11 conceded against Sheffield United
W 1.22 created, 0.63 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
L 2.61 created, 1.31 conceded against Coventry City
W 0.92 created, 0.79 conceded against Middlesbrough
D 0.35 created, 1.43 conceded against Ipswich Town
D 1.39 created, 0.77 conceded against Bristol City

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.