Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 16:00
2d 17h to kick-offWest Ham United – Southampton
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Top odds updated 21 October, 18:00
What the model expects
- West Ham United
- 50%
- Draw
- 27%
- Southampton
- 23%
| West Ham United | Draw | Southampton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.99 | 3.70 | 4.40 |
- Total goals
- 3.00
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 4 outcomes.
-
West Ham United
- Model
- 50.3%
- Market, margin removed
- 56.3%
- Probability gap
- −6.0 pp
- Edge
- −16.2%
- Fair odds
- 1.99
- Market odds
- 1.67 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.09
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.6%
-
Draw
- Model
- 27.0%
- Market, margin removed
- 22.9%
- Probability gap
- +4.1 pp
- Edge
- +10.8%
- Fair odds
- 3.70
- Market odds
- 4.10 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.89
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.6%
-
Southampton
- Model
- 22.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 20.8%
- Probability gap
- +1.9 pp
- Edge
- +2.3%
- Fair odds
- 4.40
- Market odds
- 4.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.62
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.6%
Outcomes with an edge
West Ham United at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Southampton to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Biggest edge
West Ham United at most 1 goal
Model 44.4% vs. bookmaker 37.5%, margin removed.
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans West Ham United
50% West Ham United to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 13th
- West Ham United attack v Southampton defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 3rd
- West Ham United defence v Southampton attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.92 vs +0.54
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.80 – 1.20
- West Ham United v Southampton
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | West Ham United | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.16 · 1st | 1.83 · 5th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.18 · joint 5th | 1.31 · 9th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.99 · 1st | +0.53 · 5th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.89 · 3rd | 1.73 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.92 | +0.54 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- West Ham United clean sheet
- 27%
- West Ham United 2+ goals
- 56%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 40%
- Both teams to score: no
- 36%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.1%
- 2:1
- 11.2%
- 2:0
- 7.9%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- West Ham United sample
- 11 matches
- Southampton sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · West Ham United
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Southampton
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 4 hours ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.