Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 16:00
Full timeSouthampton 0:0 Bolton Wanderers
Southampton were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. It finished 0–0. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.
The model against the result
- Southampton
- 48%
- Draw
- 28% What happened
- Bolton Wanderers
- 24%
Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Projected vs produced
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 14
- 14
- On target
- 2
- 3
- Inside the box
- 11
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.14
- 0.09
- Open play xG
- 1.78
- 1.13
- Set-piece xG
- 0.12
- 0.10
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.87 for Southampton and 1.22 for Bolton Wanderers.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
28 shots · 3.13 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Southampton
- Bolton Wanderers
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.60 xG created 1.42 xGA
1.51 xG created 1.72 xGA
- L 1.15 created, 2.63 conceded against Millwall
- L 1.56 created, 2.22 conceded against West Ham United
- W 0.48 created, 1.79 conceded against Cardiff City
- W 1.10 created, 0.69 conceded against Norwich City
- L 3.13 created, 0.74 conceded against Stoke City
- W 1.62 created, 2.23 conceded against Wolverhampton
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
8 qualified edges flagged5 won3 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton not to score | 11.00 | +75.8% | Won |
| Bolton Wanderers to win | 7.00 | +69.4% | Lost |
| Southampton at most 1 goal | 3.25 | +55.6% | Won |
| Draw | 4.75 | +33.5% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.75 | +19.1% | Won |
| Bolton Wanderers 2+ goals | 3.40 | +15.7% | Lost |
| Bolton Wanderers to score | 1.50 | +8.8% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 6.00 | +6.2% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton | 47.7% | 66.6% | −18.9 pp | 2.10 |
| Draw | 28.1% | 19.9% | +8.2 pp | 3.56 |
| Bolton Wanderers | 24.2% | 13.5% | +10.7 pp | 4.13 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton to score | 84.0% | 91.3% | −7.3 pp | 1.19 |
| Southampton not to score | 16.0% | 8.7% | +7.3 pp | 6.26 |
| Bolton Wanderers to score | 72.5% | 62.5% | +10.0 pp | 1.38 |
| Bolton Wanderers not to score | 27.5% | 37.5% | −10.0 pp | 3.64 |
| Both teams to score | 62.5% | 58.9% | +3.7 pp | 1.60 |
| Both teams not to score | 37.5% | 41.1% | −3.7 pp | 2.67 |
| Southampton 2+ goals | 52.1% | 70.9% | −18.8 pp | 1.92 |
| Southampton at most 1 goal | 47.9% | 29.1% | +18.8 pp | 2.09 |
| Bolton Wanderers 2+ goals | 34.0% | 27.7% | +6.4 pp | 2.94 |
| Bolton Wanderers at most 1 goal | 66.0% | 72.3% | −6.4 pp | 1.52 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.3% | 84.2% | −1.9 pp | 1.22 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17.7% | 15.8% | +1.9 pp | 5.65 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.7% | 65.6% | −8.9 pp | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.3% | 34.4% | +8.9 pp | 2.31 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Southampton sample
- 20 matches
- Bolton Wanderers sample
- 10 matches
- Computed
- 29 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 59 minutes before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.