Tuesday, 24/11/2026 at 21:00
34d 0h to kick-offWolverhampton – Derby County
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Wolverhampton
- 57%
- Draw
- 27%
- Derby County
- 16%
| Wolverhampton | Draw | Derby County | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.75 | 3.68 | 6.31 |
- Total goals
- 2.61
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Wolverhampton
57% Wolverhampton to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 17th
- Wolverhampton attack v Derby County defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 16th
- Wolverhampton defence v Derby County attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.70 vs -0.16
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.73 – 0.88
- Wolverhampton v Derby County
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Wolverhampton | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.71 · 7th | 0.96 · 23rd |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.99 · 1st | 1.65 · 20th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.73 · 3rd | -0.69 · 21st |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.90 · 2nd | 1.07 · 18th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.70 | -0.16 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Wolverhampton clean sheet
- 39%
- Wolverhampton 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.0%
- 2:1
- 11.5%
- 2:0
- 11.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Wolverhampton sample
- 11 matches
- Derby County sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Wolverhampton
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Derby County
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.