Wednesday, 04/11/2026 at 21:00
14d 0h to kick-offBristol City – Wolverhampton
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Bristol City
- 26%
- Draw
- 32%
- Wolverhampton
- 42%
| Bristol City | Draw | Wolverhampton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.86 | 3.13 | 2.37 |
- Total goals
- 2.39
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score
- 54%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Wolverhampton
42% Wolverhampton to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 12th
- Wolverhampton attack v Bristol City defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 17th
- Wolverhampton defence v Bristol City attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.70 vs +0.53
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.04 – 1.35
- Bristol City v Wolverhampton
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Bristol City | Wolverhampton |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.32 · 13th | (better) 1.71 · 7th |
| xGA / match | 1.35 · 10th | (better) 0.99 · 1st |
| xGD / match | -0.03 · 11th | (better) +0.73 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 1.44 · 11th | (better) 1.90 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.53 | (better) +0.70 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Wolverhampton clean sheet
- 33%
- Wolverhampton 2+ goals
- 40%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score: no
- 46%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.5%
- 1:2
- 10.3%
- 0:1
- 10.1%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Bristol City sample
- 20 matches
- Wolverhampton sample
- 11 matches
- Home xG sample · Bristol City
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Wolverhampton
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.