Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 16:00
Full timeDerby County 0:1 Stoke City
Derby County were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. Stoke City won 1–0. The biggest difference was Stoke City's attack: 0.56 xG against 1.05 projected (−0.49). Derby County produced 0.99 xG against 1.46 projected (−0.47).
Goals
- 49' Luke Graham Stoke City · 0.08 xG chance 0–1
The model against the result
- Derby County
- 45%
- Draw
- 31%
- Stoke City
- 24% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Stoke City produced 0.49 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 17
- 12
- On target
- 3
- 4
- Inside the box
- 14
- 3
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.05
- Open play xG
- 0.67
- 0.36
- Set-piece xG
- 0.32
- 0.20
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
29 shots · 1.54 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Derby County
- Stoke City
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
0.95 xG created 1.80 xGA
- L 0.11 created, 3.79 conceded against West Ham United
- L 1.27 created, 0.38 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
- L 1.11 created, 3.17 conceded against Birmingham City
- D 1.75 created, 0.45 conceded against Burnley
- D 0.60 created, 1.46 conceded against Wrexham
- L 0.85 created, 1.52 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
1.11 xG created 1.80 xGA
- W 2.14 created, 0.61 conceded against Charlton Athletic
- D 1.11 created, 3.60 conceded against Cardiff City
- W 1.50 created, 0.39 conceded against Watford
- W 0.54 created, 0.48 conceded against Sheffield United
- W 0.74 created, 3.13 conceded against Bolton Wanderers
- L 0.65 created, 2.57 conceded against Middlesbrough
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 qualified edges flagged1 won6 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County to win | 2.90 | +30.7% | Lost |
| Derby County 2+ goals | 2.63 | +16.1% | Lost |
| Stoke City at most 1 goal | 1.57 | +12.6% | Won |
| Stoke City not to score | 3.50 | +12.3% | Lost |
| Derby County to score | 1.36 | +8.4% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.30 | +1.2% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 | +1.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County | 45.1% | 32.1% | +12.9 pp | 2.22 |
| Draw | 30.7% | 28.2% | +2.4 pp | 3.26 |
| Stoke City | 24.3% | 39.6% | −15.4 pp | 4.12 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby County to score | 79.5% | 68.7% | +10.7 pp | 1.26 |
| Derby County not to score | 20.5% | 31.3% | −10.7 pp | 4.87 |
| Stoke City to score | 67.9% | 73.1% | −5.2 pp | 1.47 |
| Stoke City not to score | 32.1% | 26.9% | +5.2 pp | 3.12 |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | 53.7% | +2.1 pp | 1.79 |
| Both teams not to score | 44.2% | 46.3% | −2.1 pp | 2.26 |
| Derby County 2+ goals | 44.2% | 35.5% | +8.7 pp | 2.26 |
| Derby County at most 1 goal | 55.8% | 64.5% | −8.7 pp | 1.79 |
| Stoke City 2+ goals | 28.3% | 41.1% | −12.8 pp | 3.53 |
| Stoke City at most 1 goal | 71.7% | 58.9% | +12.8 pp | 1.39 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.8% | 71.8% | +3.9 pp | 1.32 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24.2% | 28.2% | −3.9 pp | 4.13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.0% | 47.4% | −0.4 pp | 2.13 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53.0% | 52.6% | +0.4 pp | 1.89 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Derby County sample
- 20 matches
- Stoke City sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 29 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 59 minutes before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.