Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 16:00
25d 2h to kick-offApollon Limassol – Pafos FC
Model updated 6 October, 12:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Apollon Limassol
- 39%
- Draw
- 31%
- Pafos FC
- 30%
| Apollon Limassol | Draw | Pafos FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.58 | 3.21 | 3.32 |
- Total goals
- 2.56
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Apollon Limassol
39% Apollon Limassol to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 5th
- Apollon Limassol attack v Pafos FC defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 2nd
- Apollon Limassol defence v Pafos FC attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.21 vs +0.41
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.37 – 1.20
- Apollon Limassol v Pafos FC
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Apollon Limassol | Pafos FC |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.18 · 13th from 4 matches | (better) 1.97 · 2nd from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.52 · joint 6th from 4 matches | 1.55 · 9th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | -0.34 · 9th from 4 matches | (better) +0.42 · 4th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 1.04 · 11th from 4 matches | (better) 1.65 · 4th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.21 | (better) +0.42 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Apollon Limassol clean sheet
- 27%
- Apollon Limassol 2+ goals
- 41%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.9%
- 2:1
- 10.1%
- 1:2
- 8.7%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Apollon Limassol sample
- 20 matches
- Pafos FC sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Apollon Limassol
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Pafos FC
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 12:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.