Friday, 06/11/2026 at 18:00
31d 0h to kick-offNea Salamina Famagusta – Omonia Aradippou
Model updated 6 October, 15:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Nea Salamina Famagusta
- 35%
- Draw
- 30%
- Omonia Aradippou
- 36%
| Nea Salamina Famagusta | Draw | Omonia Aradippou | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.89 | 3.36 | 2.80 |
- Total goals
- 2.81
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
36% Omonia Aradippou to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 12th
- Omonia Aradippou attack v Nea Salamina Famagusta defence
- Defence
- 11th vs 9th
- Omonia Aradippou defence v Nea Salamina Famagusta attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.19 vs -0.69
- xGD per match, last 4
- Projected goals
- 1.39 – 1.42
- Nea Salamina Famagusta v Omonia Aradippou
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 4 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Nea Salamina Famagusta | Omonia Aradippou |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.34 · 11th from 4 matches | (better) 1.61 · 6th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 2.04 · 12th from 4 matches | (better) 1.96 · 11th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | -0.69 · 13th from 4 matches | (better) -0.36 · 10th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 0.97 · 13th from 4 matches | (better) 1.16 · 9th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.69 from 4 matches | (better) -0.19 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Omonia Aradippou clean sheet
- 22%
- Omonia Aradippou 2+ goals
- 43%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.8%
- 1:2
- 9.8%
- 2:1
- 9.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
· 1 warning
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Nea Salamina Famagusta sample
- 4 matches
- Omonia Aradippou sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Nea Salamina Famagusta
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Omonia Aradippou
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 15:30
Warnings
- Nea Salamina Famagusta has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.