Friday, 16/10/2026 at 20:00
12d 18h to kick-offPafos FC – APOEL Nicosia
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Pafos FC
- 39%
- Draw
- 32%
- APOEL Nicosia
- 29%
| Pafos FC | Draw | APOEL Nicosia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.57 | 3.09 | 3.47 |
- Total goals
- 2.39
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score
- 54%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Pafos FC
39% Pafos FC to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 2nd
- Pafos FC attack v APOEL Nicosia defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 7th
- Pafos FC defence v APOEL Nicosia attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.41 vs +0.20
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.29 – 1.09
- Pafos FC v APOEL Nicosia
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Pafos FC | APOEL Nicosia |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.97 · 2nd from 4 matches | 1.47 · 8th from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 1.55 · 9th from 4 matches | (better) 0.68 · 1st from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | +0.42 · 4th from 4 matches | (better) +0.80 · 2nd from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 1.65 · 4th from 4 matches | (better) 1.97 · 2nd from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.42 | +0.20 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Pafos FC clean sheet
- 30%
- Pafos FC 2+ goals
- 38%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score: no
- 46%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.7%
- 2:1
- 9.9%
- 0:0
- 9.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Pafos FC sample
- 20 matches
- APOEL Nicosia sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Pafos FC
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · APOEL Nicosia
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.