Bohemians Praha 1905 1:0 Mladá Boleslav: xG & match report · Czech First League

Wednesday, 14/10/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Czech First League

Bohemians Praha 1905 Home 0.63 xG · 9 shots

Mladá Boleslav Away 0.86 xG · 12 shots

10 The chances were evenly matched

Bohemians Praha 1905 were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 54%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Bohemians Praha 1905's attack: 0.63 xG against 1.93 projected (−1.30). Mladá Boleslav produced 0.86 xG against 1.17 projected (−0.31).

Goals

13' Aleš Čermák Bohemians Praha 1905 · 0.13 xG chance 1–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Bohemians Praha 1905: 54% What happened
Draw: 26%
Mladá Boleslav: 20%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Bohemians Praha 1905 1.93 0.63 -1.30

Mladá Boleslav 1.17 0.86 -0.31

Bohemians Praha 1905 produced 1.30 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Bohemians Praha 1905 Mladá Boleslav

Shots: 9; 12
On target: 2; 5
Inside the box: 5; 7
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.07
Open play xG: 0.50; 0.82
Set-piece xG: 0.13; 0.06
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.86 for Mladá Boleslav.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

21 shots · 1.50 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Bohemians Praha 1905
Mladá Boleslav
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Bohemians Praha 1905

1.71 xG created 1.26 xGA

D 0.81 created, 2.74 conceded against SK Slavia Praha
D 1.75 created, 1.15 conceded against FK Jablonec
L 0.42 created, 1.78 conceded against SK Sigma Olomouc
W 3.70 created, 0.24 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
L 1.05 created, 0.94 conceded against FK Pardubice
W 2.51 created, 0.73 conceded against Baník Ostrava

Mladá Boleslav

1.38 xG created 2.40 xGA

D 0.75 created, 1.37 conceded against FK Pardubice
W 1.16 created, 2.18 conceded against 1. FC Slovácko
W 3.10 created, 2.44 conceded against Baník Ostrava
L 0.69 created, 3.19 conceded against FC Slovan Liberec
W 1.03 created, 2.49 conceded against FC Zbrojovka Brno
L 1.57 created, 2.75 conceded against Viktoria Plzeň

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Bohemians Praha 1905: 0 won · 2 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 qualified edges flagged3 won4 lost

Won
Lost
Won
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Bohemians Praha 1905 against Mladá Boleslav before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Bohemians Praha 1905 to win	2.10	+14.2%	Won
Bohemians Praha 1905 2+ goals	1.83	+9.4%	Lost
Bohemians Praha 1905 to score	1.18	+3.6%	Won
Mladá Boleslav at most 1 goal	1.53	+2.5%	Won
Both teams to score	1.57	+1.1%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.18	+0.8%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	1.62	+0.0%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Bohemians Praha 1905	54.4%	43.8%	+10.6 pp	1.84
Draw	25.6%	25.5%	+0.0 pp	3.91
Mladá Boleslav	20.0%	30.7%	−10.6 pp	4.99

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Bohemians Praha 1905 to score	87.7%	79.2%	+8.5 pp	1.14
Bohemians Praha 1905 not to score	12.3%	20.8%	−8.5 pp	8.11
Mladá Boleslav to score	71.8%	73.1%	−1.3 pp	1.39
Mladá Boleslav not to score	28.2%	26.9%	+1.3 pp	3.55
Both teams to score	64.4%	58.9%	+5.5 pp	1.55
Both teams not to score	35.6%	41.1%	−5.5 pp	2.81
Bohemians Praha 1905 2+ goals	59.7%	50.0%	+9.7 pp	1.68
Bohemians Praha 1905 at most 1 goal	40.3%	50.0%	−9.7 pp	2.48
Mladá Boleslav 2+ goals	33.2%	39.2%	−6.1 pp	3.02
Mladá Boleslav at most 1 goal	66.8%	60.8%	+6.1 pp	1.50
Over 1.5 goals	85.3%	79.2%	+6.1 pp	1.17
Under 1.5 goals	14.7%	20.8%	−6.1 pp	6.80
Over 2.5 goals	61.9%	58.2%	+3.7 pp	1.61
Under 2.5 goals	38.1%	41.8%	−3.7 pp	2.63

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Bohemians Praha 1905 sample: 20 matches
Mladá Boleslav sample: 20 matches
Computed: 49 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.