Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 15:00
13d 14h to kick-offSK Slavia Praha – FC Hradec Králové
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- SK Slavia Praha
- 66%
- Draw
- 23%
- FC Hradec Králové
- 12%
| SK Slavia Praha | Draw | FC Hradec Králové | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.53 | 4.39 | 8.55 |
- Total goals
- 2.92
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score
- 55%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans SK Slavia Praha
66% SK Slavia Praha to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 8th
- SK Slavia Praha attack v FC Hradec Králové defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 13th
- SK Slavia Praha defence v FC Hradec Králové attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.90 vs -0.18
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.07 – 0.85
- SK Slavia Praha v FC Hradec Králové
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | SK Slavia Praha | FC Hradec Králové |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.38 · 1st | 1.03 · 14th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.02 · 3rd | 1.05 · 4th |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.36 · 1st | -0.02 · 9th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.11 · 1st | 1.39 · 7th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.90 | -0.18 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- SK Slavia Praha clean sheet
- 40%
- SK Slavia Praha 2+ goals
- 63%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score: no
- 45%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:0
- 11.6%
- 1:1
- 11.6%
- 2:1
- 11.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SK Slavia Praha sample
- 20 matches
- FC Hradec Králové sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · SK Slavia Praha
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Hradec Králové
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.