Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 16:00
32d 10h to kick-offLegia Warszawa – Raków Częstochowa
Model updated 6 October, 06:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Legia Warszawa
- 50%
- Draw
- 28%
- Raków Częstochowa
- 22%
| Legia Warszawa | Draw | Raków Częstochowa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.99 | 3.59 | 4.59 |
- Total goals
- 2.84
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Legia Warszawa
50% Legia Warszawa to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 17th
- Legia Warszawa attack v Raków Częstochowa defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 6th
- Legia Warszawa defence v Raków Częstochowa attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.22 vs -1.44
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.72 – 1.12
- Legia Warszawa v Raków Częstochowa
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Legia Warszawa | Raków Częstochowa |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.71 · 4th | 1.42 · 12th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.27 · 5th | 2.36 · 18th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.43 · 4th | -0.94 · 18th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.66 · 4th | 0.93 · 18th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.22 | -1.45 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Legia Warszawa clean sheet
- 29%
- Legia Warszawa 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score: no
- 39%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.9%
- 2:1
- 11.5%
- 2:0
- 8.6%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Legia Warszawa sample
- 20 matches
- Raków Częstochowa sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Legia Warszawa
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Raków Częstochowa
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.