Monday, 19/10/2026 at 19:00
Full timeWisła Płock 1:0 Radomiak Radom
Wisła Płock were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Wisła Płock's attack: 0.46 xG against 1.77 projected (−1.31).
Goals
- 15' Jurica Pršir Wisła Płock · 0.27 xG chance 1–0
The model against the result
- Wisła Płock
- 49% What happened
- Draw
- 27%
- Radomiak Radom
- 24%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Wisła Płock produced 1.31 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 5
- 16
- On target
- 1
- 1
- Inside the box
- 4
- 12
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 0.47
- 0.83
- Set-piece xG
- 0.00
- 0.28
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.46 for Wisła Płock and 1.12 for Radomiak Radom.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
21 shots · 1.58 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Wisła Płock
- Radomiak Radom
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.49 xG created 1.64 xGA
- L 1.73 created, 2.90 conceded against GKS Katowice
- L 2.25 created, 0.92 conceded against MKS Korona Kielce
- D 1.67 created, 1.99 conceded against Pogoń Szczecin
- W 1.48 created, 1.14 conceded against Cracovia
- W 1.17 created, 1.06 conceded against Zagłębie Lubin
- L 0.62 created, 1.83 conceded against Wieczysta Kraków
1.42 xG created 2.21 xGA
- D 0.78 created, 1.27 conceded against Zagłębie Lubin
- W 1.89 created, 2.02 conceded against Cracovia
- D 1.69 created, 1.59 conceded against Widzew Łódź
- L 2.33 created, 1.79 conceded against Piast Gliwice
- L 0.98 created, 3.98 conceded against Lech Poznań
- L 0.86 created, 2.58 conceded against Motor Lublin
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
1 qualified edge flagged0 won1 lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | +1.1% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisła Płock | 48.8% | 50.7% | −1.8 pp | 2.05 |
| Draw | 27.3% | 25.3% | +2.0 pp | 3.66 |
| Radomiak Radom | 23.9% | 24.0% | −0.1 pp | 4.19 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisła Płock to score | 85.3% | 84.2% | +1.1 pp | 1.17 |
| Wisła Płock not to score | 14.7% | 15.8% | −1.1 pp | 6.79 |
| Radomiak Radom to score | 73.7% | 70.9% | +2.8 pp | 1.36 |
| Radomiak Radom not to score | 26.3% | 29.1% | −2.8 pp | 3.80 |
| Both teams to score | 64.4% | 58.9% | +5.5 pp | 1.55 |
| Both teams not to score | 35.6% | 41.1% | −5.5 pp | 2.81 |
| Wisła Płock 2+ goals | 54.7% | 55.7% | −1.1 pp | 1.83 |
| Wisła Płock at most 1 goal | 45.3% | 44.3% | +1.1 pp | 2.21 |
| Radomiak Radom 2+ goals | 35.5% | 35.5% | +0.0 pp | 2.82 |
| Radomiak Radom at most 1 goal | 64.5% | 64.5% | −0.0 pp | 1.55 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.0% | 79.2% | +4.8 pp | 1.19 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16.0% | 20.8% | −4.8 pp | 6.24 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.5% | 58.2% | +1.3 pp | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.5% | 41.8% | −1.3 pp | 2.47 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Wisła Płock sample
- 20 matches
- Radomiak Radom sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 29 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 59 minutes before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.