Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 17:00
14d 15h to kick-offSandefjord Fotball – Lillestrøm SK
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Sandefjord Fotball
- 40%
- Draw
- 32%
- Lillestrøm SK
- 28%
| Sandefjord Fotball | Draw | Lillestrøm SK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.48 | 3.16 | 3.56 |
- Total goals
- 2.48
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score
- 56%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Sandefjord Fotball
40% Sandefjord Fotball to win
- Attack
- 11th vs 7th
- Sandefjord Fotball attack v Lillestrøm SK defence
- Defence
- 11th vs 12th
- Sandefjord Fotball defence v Lillestrøm SK attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.52 vs -0.28
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.36 – 1.12
- Sandefjord Fotball v Lillestrøm SK
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Sandefjord Fotball | Lillestrøm SK |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.18 · 13th | (better) 1.56 · 7th |
| xGA / match | 1.59 · 9th | (better) 1.46 · 7th |
| xGD / match | -0.41 · 11th | (better) +0.10 · 7th |
| xPts / match | 1.09 · 12th | (better) 1.46 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.52 | (better) -0.28 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Sandefjord Fotball clean sheet
- 30%
- Sandefjord Fotball 2+ goals
- 40%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score: no
- 44%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.3%
- 2:1
- 10.3%
- 1:0
- 9.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Sandefjord Fotball sample
- 20 matches
- Lillestrøm SK sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Sandefjord Fotball
- 11 matches
- Away xG sample · Lillestrøm SK
- 11 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.