Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 17:00
21d 14h to kick-offSarpsborg 08 – Aalesunds FK
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Sarpsborg 08
- 49%
- Draw
- 28%
- Aalesunds FK
- 23%
| Sarpsborg 08 | Draw | Aalesunds FK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.04 | 3.61 | 4.29 |
- Total goals
- 2.90
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score
- 62%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Sarpsborg 08
49% Sarpsborg 08 to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 16th
- Sarpsborg 08 attack v Aalesunds FK defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 6th
- Sarpsborg 08 defence v Aalesunds FK attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.14 vs -0.55
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.73 – 1.18
- Sarpsborg 08 v Aalesunds FK
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Sarpsborg 08 | Aalesunds FK |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.51 · 9th | 1.40 · 10th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.40 · 5th | 1.98 · 16th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.11 · 6th | -0.58 · 14th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.45 · 7th | 1.04 · 14th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.14 | -0.55 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Sarpsborg 08 clean sheet
- 28%
- Sarpsborg 08 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score: no
- 38%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.7%
- 2:1
- 11.2%
- 2:0
- 8.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Sarpsborg 08 sample
- 20 matches
- Aalesunds FK sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Sarpsborg 08
- 10 matches
- Away xG sample · Aalesunds FK
- 10 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.