xgEdge

Expected goals

HNK Gorica expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

HNL · after 8 matches · updated 1 Oct

HNK Gorica's attacking and defensive expected goals in HNL 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

HNK Gorica xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
0.87 xG per match
#9/10
Attack (xG per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2.24
#2 HNK Rijeka 1.65
#3 HNK Hajduk Split 1.52
#4 NK Osijek 1.51
#5 NK Istra 1961 1.44
#6 NK Varaždin 1.41
#7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.05
#8 NK Slaven Belupo 0.93
#9 HNK Gorica 0.87
#10 NK Rudeš 0.60
League avg
1.31
Total
6.96 8 matches
Defence
1.37 xGA per match
#7/10
Defence (xGA per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 HNK Hajduk Split 0.74
#2 HNK Rijeka 0.77
#3 NK Varaždin 0.88
#4 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0.91
#5 NK Istra 1961 1.26
#6 NK Osijek 1.28
#7 HNK Gorica 1.37
#8 NK Slaven Belupo 1.68
#9 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.84
#10 NK Rudeš 2.20
League avg
1.31
Total
10.96 8 matches
xG difference
-0.50 xGD per match
#7/10
xG difference (xGD per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb +1.32
#2 HNK Rijeka +0.88
#3 HNK Hajduk Split +0.78
#4 NK Varaždin +0.53
#5 NK Osijek +0.23
#6 NK Istra 1961 +0.19
#7 HNK Gorica -0.50
#8 NK Slaven Belupo -0.76
#9 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb -0.79
#10 NK Rudeš -1.61
League avg
0.00
Total
-4.00 8 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
0.95 xPts per match
#7/10
Expected points (xPts per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 2.23
#2 HNK Rijeka 1.96
#3 HNK Hajduk Split 1.93
#4 NK Varaždin 1.80
#5 NK Osijek 1.53
#6 NK Istra 1961 1.45
#7 HNK Gorica 0.95
#8 NK Slaven Belupo 0.93
#9 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.82
#10 NK Rudeš 0.45
League avg
1.39
Total
7.64 vs 5 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 8 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

HNK Gorica's underlying numbers are among the weakest in HNL. They rank #7 for xG difference at -0.50 per match, from low shot volume and low chance quality. Their 5 goals are 1.96 below 6.96 xG, while 5 points are 2.64 below 7.64 xPts. After only 8 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.07 xG from penalties
5 6.96 -1.96 scored 1.96 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
12 10.96 +1.04 conceded 1.04 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
5 7.64 -2.64 2.64 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

HNK Gorica are 1.96 goals below their xG after 8 matches. The gap was widest at -3.50, against GNK Dinamo Zagreb on Sat 05/09.

Goals
5
xG
6.96
Gap
-1.96
Sat 01/08 Sat 08/08 Sun 16/08 Sat 22/08 Mon 31/08 Sat 05/09 Mon 14/09 Sat 19/09 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 -0.82 -1.36 -1.63 -2.56 -2.71 -3.50 -2.35 -1.96 -0.82 -0.54 -0.27 -0.93 -0.15 -0.79 +1.15 +0.39 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
HNK Gorica: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 01/08 NK Osijek 0 0.82 -0.82 -0.82
Sat 08/08 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1 1.54 -0.54 -1.36
Sun 16/08 HNK Hajduk Split 1 1.27 -0.27 -1.63
Sat 22/08 NK Slaven Belupo 0 0.93 -0.93 -2.56
Mon 31/08 HNK Rijeka 0 0.15 -0.15 -2.71
Sat 05/09 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0 0.79 -0.79 -3.50
Mon 14/09 NK Varaždin 2 0.85 +1.15 -2.35
Sat 19/09 NK Istra 1961 1 0.61 +0.39 -1.96

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking → Compare with every club in Europe →

HNK Gorica xG trend

Current form -0.66 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 1 of 8 matches. The worst was against GNK Dinamo Zagreb on Sat 05/09 (-1.30).

npxG · last 6
0.59
npxGA · last 6
1.25
-2 -1 0 +1 -1.09 Sat 01/08 +0.28 Sat 08/08 -0.72 Sun 16/08 -0.08 Sat 22/08 -0.24 Mon 31/08 -1.30 Sat 05/09 -0.96 Mon 14/09 -0.67 Sat 19/09 -0.60 season avg
HNK Gorica: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 01/08 NK Osijek 0.82 1.91 -1.09 -1.09
Sat 08/08 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.52 1.24 +0.28 -0.41
Sun 16/08 HNK Hajduk Split 0.48 1.20 -0.72 -0.51
Sat 22/08 NK Slaven Belupo 0.87 0.95 -0.08 -0.40
Mon 31/08 HNK Rijeka 0.16 0.40 -0.24 -0.37
Sat 05/09 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0.79 2.09 -1.30 -0.52
Mon 14/09 NK Varaždin 0.71 1.67 -0.96 -0.59
Sat 19/09 NK Istra 1961 0.54 1.21 -0.67 -0.60

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 0.74 npxG and 1.33 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 1 hardest of 10 in HNL
+0.11 xG vs league average
Over 8 league matches
Last 5
number 2 hardest of 10 in HNL
+0.14 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.11 xG vs league average · over 8 matches · tied number 1 hardest of 10

  1. NK Istra 1961 Away −0.20
  2. NK Varaždin Home +0.13
  3. GNK Dinamo Zagreb Away +0.52
  4. HNK Rijeka Home +0.55
  5. NK Slaven Belupo Away −0.33
  6. HNK Hajduk Split Home +0.38
  7. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Away −0.39
  8. NK Osijek Home +0.18

Last 5

+0.14 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 2 hardest of 10

  1. NK Istra 1961 Away −0.20
  2. NK Varaždin Home +0.13
  3. GNK Dinamo Zagreb Away +0.52
  4. HNK Rijeka Home +0.55
  5. NK Slaven Belupo Away −0.33

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

HNK Gorica shots and chance quality

Low volume, low quality. HNK Gorica take 9.9 shots a match (league 13.7) at 0.07 npxG a shot (league 0.09), =8 in HNL for volume and #8 for quality. 68% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%), and set pieces produce 24% of their npxG (league 21%).

Attack

Shot volume
9.9 shots per match
=8/10
Shot volume (shots per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 19.6
#2 NK Osijek 17.6
#3 HNK Rijeka 17.6
#4 HNK Hajduk Split 15.5
#5 NK Varaždin 14.1
#6 NK Istra 1961 13.0
#7 NK Slaven Belupo 11.5
=8 HNK Gorica 9.9
=8 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 9.9
#10 NK Rudeš 9.1
League avg
13.7
Total
79 shots from 8 matches
Chance quality
0.07 npxG per shot
#8/10
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across HNL, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0.10
#2 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.10
#3 NK Istra 1961 0.10
#4 HNK Rijeka 0.09
#5 NK Varaždin 0.09
#6 HNK Hajduk Split 0.09
#7 NK Osijek 0.08
#8 HNK Gorica 0.07
#9 NK Slaven Belupo 0.07
#10 NK Rudeš 0.06
League avg
0.09
Total
5.89 npxG from 79 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
16.6 shots per match
#8/10
Shots allowed (shots per match) across HNL, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 HNK Hajduk Split 7.5
#2 HNK Rijeka 7.9
#3 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 9.1
#4 NK Varaždin 12.1
#5 NK Osijek 12.6
#6 NK Istra 1961 14.6
#7 NK Slaven Belupo 16.5
#8 HNK Gorica 16.6
#9 NK Rudeš 17.5
#10 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 20.8
League avg
13.7
Total
133 shots allowed from 8 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.08 npxGA per shot
#4/10
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across HNL, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 NK Varaždin 0.06
#2 HNK Rijeka 0.08
#3 NK Istra 1961 0.08
#4 HNK Gorica 0.08
#5 HNK Hajduk Split 0.09
#6 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.09
#7 NK Osijek 0.09
#8 NK Rudeš 0.10
#9 NK Slaven Belupo 0.10
#10 GNK Dinamo Zagreb 0.10
League avg
0.09
Total
10.67 npxGA from 133 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

68% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 54 of 79 shots over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

66% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 88 of 133 shots allowed over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

76% open play · 24% set pieces

League avg 21% set pieces

From 1.4 of 5.9 npxG over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

80% open play · 20% set pieces

League avg 21% set pieces

From 2.1 of 10.5 npxG allowed over 8 matches

Early-season figure: after 8 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

HNK Gorica home and away xG

HNK Gorica per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 4 4
xG / match 0.77 0.97
xGA / match 1.46 1.28
xGD / match -0.69 -0.31
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 0.83 1.08

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every HNK Gorica match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
8
xG / match
0.87
xGA / match
1.37
xGD / match
-0.50
Points
5 of 24
  1. Sat 19/09 NK Istra 1961 A xG 0.61 xGA 1.21 xGD -0.60
  2. Mon 14/09 NK Varaždin H xG 0.85 xGA 1.55 xGD -0.70
  3. Sat 05/09 GNK Dinamo Zagreb A xG 0.79 xGA 1.70 xGD -0.91
  4. Mon 31/08 HNK Rijeka H xG 0.15 xGA 0.40 xGD -0.25
  5. Sat 22/08 NK Slaven Belupo A xG 0.93 xGA 1.07 xGD -0.14
  6. Sun 16/08 HNK Hajduk Split H xG 1.27 P xGA 1.20 xGD +0.07
  7. Sat 08/08 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb A Best underlying xG 1.54 xGA 1.13 xGD +0.41
  8. Sat 01/08 NK Osijek H Weakest underlying xG 0.82 xGA 2.70 P xGD -1.88

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

HNK Gorica in HNL

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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