Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 20:45
20d 17h to kick-offKVC Westerlo – SK Beveren
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- KVC Westerlo
- 50%
- Draw
- 28%
- SK Beveren
- 22%
| KVC Westerlo | Draw | SK Beveren | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.00 | 3.63 | 4.47 |
- Total goals
- 2.89
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score
- 62%
One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans KVC Westerlo
50% KVC Westerlo to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 16th
- KVC Westerlo attack v SK Beveren defence
- Defence
- 13th vs 16th
- KVC Westerlo defence v SK Beveren attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.26 vs -0.66
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.74 – 1.15
- KVC Westerlo v SK Beveren
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 7 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | KVC Westerlo | SK Beveren |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.45 · 9th | 1.11 · 15th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.81 · 13th | 1.86 · 15th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.37 · 13th | -0.75 · 15th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.24 · 11th | 0.95 · 16th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.25 | -0.66 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- KVC Westerlo clean sheet
- 29%
- KVC Westerlo 2+ goals
- 54%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score: no
- 38%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.6%
- 2:1
- 11.2%
- 2:0
- 8.4%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- KVC Westerlo sample
- 20 matches
- SK Beveren sample
- 7 matches
- Home xG sample · KVC Westerlo
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · SK Beveren
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Warnings
- SK Beveren has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.