Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 18:15
19d 13h to kick-offOud-Heverlee Leuven – Lommel SK
Model updated 5 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- 45%
- Draw
- 31%
- Lommel SK
- 24%
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Draw | Lommel SK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.24 | 3.23 | 4.10 |
- Total goals
- 2.48
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score
- 55%
One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Oud-Heverlee Leuven
45% Oud-Heverlee Leuven to win
- Attack
- 15th vs 17th
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven attack v Lommel SK defence
- Defence
- 9th vs 17th
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven defence v Lommel SK attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.70 vs -0.58
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.44 – 1.04
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven v Lommel SK
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 7 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Lommel SK |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.01 · 16th | 0.94 · 18th |
| xGA / match | 1.88 · 16th | (better) 1.50 · 9th |
| xGD / match | -0.87 · 16th | (better) -0.56 · 14th |
| xPts / match | 0.86 · 18th | (better) 1.00 · 15th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.70 | (better) -0.58 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven clean sheet
- 33%
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2+ goals
- 43%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score: no
- 45%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.9%
- 2:1
- 10.7%
- 1:0
- 9.7%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven sample
- 20 matches
- Lommel SK sample
- 7 matches
- Home xG sample · Oud-Heverlee Leuven
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Lommel SK
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 03:30
Warnings
- Lommel SK has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.