Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 16:15
12d 12h to kick-offCelta Vigo – Deportivo Alavés
Model updated 6 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Celta Vigo
- 29%
- Draw
- 34%
- Deportivo Alavés
- 37%
| Celta Vigo | Draw | Deportivo Alavés | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.43 | 2.93 | 2.73 |
- Total goals
- 2.15
- Over 2.5 goals
- 37%
- Both teams to score
- 49%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Deportivo Alavés
37% Deportivo Alavés to win
- Attack
- 9th vs 11th
- Deportivo Alavés attack v Celta Vigo defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 19th
- Deportivo Alavés defence v Celta Vigo attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.18 vs -0.31
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.01 – 1.15
- Celta Vigo v Deportivo Alavés
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Celta Vigo | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.01 · 15th | (better) 1.28 · 9th |
| xGA / match | 1.26 · 7th | (better) 1.19 · 5th |
| xGD / match | -0.26 · 10th | (better) +0.09 · 6th |
| xPts / match | 1.28 · 10th | (better) 1.44 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.31 | (better) -0.18 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 40% of the model's distribution.
- Deportivo Alavés clean sheet
- 34%
- Deportivo Alavés 2+ goals
- 32%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 63%
- Both teams to score: no
- 51%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.4%
- 0:0
- 11.8%
- 0:1
- 11.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Celta Vigo sample
- 20 matches
- Deportivo Alavés sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Celta Vigo
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Deportivo Alavés
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.