Sunday, 08/11/2026 at 20:00
33d 21h to kick-offCelta Vigo – Levante UD
Model updated 5 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Celta Vigo
- 33%
- Draw
- 32%
- Levante UD
- 35%
| Celta Vigo | Draw | Levante UD | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.05 | 3.14 | 2.83 |
- Total goals
- 2.50
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
35% Levante UD to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 11th
- Levante UD attack v Celta Vigo defence
- Defence
- 18th vs 19th
- Levante UD defence v Celta Vigo attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.75 vs -0.31
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.22 – 1.27
- Celta Vigo v Levante UD
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Celta Vigo | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.01 · 15th | (better) 1.33 · 8th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.26 · 7th | 2.08 · 19th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.26 · 10th | -0.75 · 16th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.28 · 10th | 1.04 · 17th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.31 | -0.75 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Levante UD clean sheet
- 26%
- Levante UD 2+ goals
- 37%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.4%
- 1:2
- 9.6%
- 2:1
- 9.2%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Celta Vigo sample
- 20 matches
- Levante UD sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Celta Vigo
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Levante UD
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.