Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 19:00
21d 12h to kick-offCD Nacional – Sporting Braga
Model updated 4 October, 06:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- CD Nacional
- 28%
- Draw
- 34%
- Sporting Braga
- 37%
| CD Nacional | Draw | Sporting Braga | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.55 | 2.91 | 2.67 |
- Total goals
- 2.12
- Over 2.5 goals
- 36%
- Both teams to score
- 48%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Sporting Braga
37% Sporting Braga to win
- Attack
- 12th vs 17th
- Sporting Braga attack v CD Nacional defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 11th
- Sporting Braga defence v CD Nacional attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.60 vs -0.81
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 0.98 – 1.15
- CD Nacional v Sporting Braga
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | CD Nacional | Sporting Braga |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.15 · 12th | (better) 1.25 · 9th |
| xGA / match | 1.87 · 17th | (better) 0.65 · 1st |
| xGD / match | -0.72 · 14th | (better) +0.60 · 6th |
| xPts / match | 1.06 · 13th | (better) 1.83 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.81 | (better) +0.60 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 41% of the model's distribution.
- Sporting Braga clean sheet
- 35%
- Sporting Braga 2+ goals
- 32%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 64%
- Both teams to score: no
- 52%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.4%
- 0:0
- 12.1%
- 0:1
- 11.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- CD Nacional sample
- 20 matches
- Sporting Braga sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · CD Nacional
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Sporting Braga
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.