Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 16:30
21d 15h to kick-offEstoril Praia – Moreirense
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Estoril Praia
- 45%
- Draw
- 33%
- Moreirense
- 22%
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Moreirense | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.22 | 3.01 | 4.61 |
- Total goals
- 2.13
- Over 2.5 goals
- 36%
- Both teams to score
- 47%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Estoril Praia
45% Estoril Praia to win
- Attack
- 14th vs 15th
- Estoril Praia attack v Moreirense defence
- Defence
- 16th vs 18th
- Estoril Praia defence v Moreirense attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.82 vs -1.02
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.28 – 0.84
- Estoril Praia v Moreirense
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Estoril Praia | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 0.85 · 16th | 0.68 · 17th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.62 · 11th | 1.73 · 14th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.76 · 15th | -1.06 · 17th |
| xPts / match | (better) 0.82 · 16th | 0.68 · 17th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.82 | -1.02 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 42% of the model's distribution.
- Estoril Praia clean sheet
- 40%
- Estoril Praia 2+ goals
- 37%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 64%
- Both teams to score: no
- 53%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.8%
- 1:0
- 13.2%
- 0:0
- 12.0%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Estoril Praia sample
- 20 matches
- Moreirense sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Estoril Praia
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Moreirense
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.