Friday, 23/10/2026 at 20:45
19d 18h to kick-offBohemian FC – Shelbourne
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Bohemian FC
- 50%
- Draw
- 27%
- Shelbourne
- 23%
| Bohemian FC | Draw | Shelbourne | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.01 | 3.66 | 4.38 |
- Total goals
- 2.94
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Bohemian FC
50% Bohemian FC to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 5th
- Bohemian FC attack v Shelbourne defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 6th
- Bohemian FC defence v Shelbourne attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.95 vs +0.12
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.76 – 1.18
- Bohemian FC v Shelbourne
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Bohemian FC | Shelbourne |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.63 · 2nd | 1.40 · 5th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.10 · 2nd | 1.20 · 5th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.53 · 2nd | +0.20 · 4th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.75 · 2nd | 1.48 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.95 | +0.12 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Bohemian FC clean sheet
- 28%
- Bohemian FC 2+ goals
- 54%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.4%
- 2:1
- 11.2%
- 2:0
- 8.1%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Bohemian FC sample
- 20 matches
- Shelbourne sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Bohemian FC
- 16 matches
- Away xG sample · Shelbourne
- 16 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.