Shelbourne 1:2 Drogheda United: xG & match report · Premier Division (Ireland)

Monday, 14/09/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Premier Division (Ireland)

Shelbourne Home 1.32 xG

Drogheda United Away 1.32 xG

12 The chances were evenly matched

Shelbourne were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. Drogheda United won 2–1. The biggest difference was Shelbourne's attack: 1.32 xG against 1.73 projected (−0.41). Drogheda United produced 1.32 xG against 1.01 projected (+0.31).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Shelbourne: 53%
Draw: 28%
Drogheda United: 19% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Shelbourne 1.73 1.32 -0.41

Drogheda United 1.01 1.32 +0.31

Shelbourne produced 0.41 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Shelbourne Drogheda United

Shots: 21; 10
On target: 5; 4
Inside the box: 8; 7
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.13

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Shelbourne

1.40 xG created 1.50 xGA

W 1.93 created, 0.95 conceded against Dundalk FC
L 1.47 created, 1.67 conceded against Waterford FC
L 1.12 created, 3.15 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic
D 2.26 created, 0.54 conceded against Galway United
D 0.82 created, 1.65 conceded against Shamrock Rovers
L 0.82 created, 1.05 conceded against Derry City

Drogheda United

1.05 xG created 1.79 xGA

D 1.03 created, 1.69 conceded against Sligo Rovers
D 0.94 created, 0.76 conceded against Shamrock Rovers
D 0.60 created, 2.18 conceded against Galway United
L 0.39 created, 1.83 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic
L 1.89 created, 3.04 conceded against Dundalk FC
W 1.42 created, 1.22 conceded against Sligo Rovers

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Shelbourne: 1 won · 2 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged2 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Shelbourne against Drogheda United before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.80	+3.8%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.90	+0.5%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Shelbourne	53.3%	51.1%	+2.2 pp	1.88
Draw	27.6%	27.0%	+0.5 pp	3.62
Drogheda United	19.1%	21.9%	−2.8 pp	5.24

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Shelbourne to score	84.5%	79.2%	+5.3 pp	1.18
Shelbourne not to score	15.5%	20.8%	−5.3 pp	6.45
Drogheda United to score	66.3%	62.5%	+3.8 pp	1.51
Drogheda United not to score	33.7%	37.5%	−3.8 pp	2.97
Both teams to score	57.7%	52.0%	+5.7 pp	1.73
Both teams not to score	42.3%	48.0%	−5.7 pp	2.36
Shelbourne 2+ goals	53.3%	50.0%	+3.3 pp	1.88
Shelbourne at most 1 goal	46.7%	50.0%	−3.3 pp	2.14
Drogheda United 2+ goals	26.7%	26.9%	−0.2 pp	3.75
Drogheda United at most 1 goal	73.3%	73.1%	+0.2 pp	1.36
Over 1.5 goals	79.7%	75.0%	+4.7 pp	1.25
Under 1.5 goals	20.3%	25.0%	−4.7 pp	4.93
Over 2.5 goals	52.9%	50.0%	+2.9 pp	1.89
Under 2.5 goals	47.1%	50.0%	−2.9 pp	2.12

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Shelbourne sample: 20 matches
Drogheda United sample: 20 matches
Computed: 12 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 12 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.