Friday, 04/09/2026 at 20:45
Kicked offShelbourne – Drogheda United
Model updated 4 September, 10:12 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Shelbourne
- 54%
- Draw
- 27%
- Drogheda United
- 19%
| Shelbourne | Draw | Drogheda United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.85 | 3.64 | 5.38 |
- Total goals
- 2.73
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Shelbourne
54% Shelbourne to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 7th
- Shelbourne attack v Drogheda United defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 9th
- Shelbourne defence v Drogheda United attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.18 vs -0.81
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.74 – 0.99
- Shelbourne v Drogheda United
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Shelbourne | Drogheda United |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.40 · 5th | 1.16 · 9th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.20 · 5th | 1.60 · 8th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.20 · 4th | -0.44 · 9th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.48 · 4th | 1.10 · 9th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.18 | -0.81 |
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Shelbourne sample
- 20 matches
- Drogheda United sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Shelbourne
- 16 matches
- Away xG sample · Drogheda United
- 16 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 04/09/2026 at 10:12
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.