Friday, 04/09/2026 at 20:45
Kicked offWaterford FC – Derry City
Model updated 4 September, 10:12 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Waterford FC
- 40%
- Draw
- 28%
- Derry City
- 32%
| Waterford FC | Draw | Derry City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.50 | 3.55 | 3.15 |
- Total goals
- 3.03
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60%
- Both teams to score
- 66%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Waterford FC
40% Waterford FC to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 2nd
- Waterford FC attack v Derry City defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 8th
- Waterford FC defence v Derry City attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.14 vs -0.18
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.60 – 1.43
- Waterford FC v Derry City
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Waterford FC | Derry City |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.40 · 6th | 1.18 · 8th |
| xGA / match | 1.77 · 9th | (better) 1.18 · 4th |
| xGD / match | -0.38 · 8th | (better) +0.01 · 6th |
| xPts / match | 1.17 · 8th | (better) 1.37 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.14 | -0.17 |
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Waterford FC sample
- 20 matches
- Derry City sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Waterford FC
- 16 matches
- Away xG sample · Derry City
- 16 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 04/09/2026 at 10:12
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.