Monday, 31/08/2026 at 21:00
Full timeAston Villa 0:1 Arsenal
Arsenal were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 44%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Aston Villa's attack: 0.33 xG against 1.05 projected (−0.72). Arsenal produced 1.04 xG against 1.42 projected (−0.38).
Goals
- 59' Bukayo Saka Arsenal · 0.59 xG chance 0–1
The model against the result
- Aston Villa
- 25%
- Draw
- 31%
- Arsenal
- 44% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Aston Villa produced 0.72 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 7
- 7
- On target
- 0
- 2
- Inside the box
- 3
- 5
- xG per shot
- 0.04
- 0.15
- Open play xG
- 0.31
- 0.76
- Set-piece xG
- 0.00
- 0.31
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.32 for Aston Villa and 1.05 for Arsenal.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
14 shots · 1.38 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Aston Villa
- Arsenal
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.10 xG created 1.75 xGA
- L 0.93 created, 1.18 conceded against Fulham
- L 0.32 created, 0.99 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
- D 1.44 created, 1.79 conceded against Burnley
- W 1.85 created, 1.43 conceded against Liverpool
- W 1.77 created, 1.34 conceded against Manchester City
- L 0.29 created, 3.77 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
1.77 xG created 0.65 xGA
- W 0.49 created, 1.00 conceded against Newcastle United
- W 3.23 created, 0.37 conceded against Fulham
- W 1.18 created, 1.15 conceded against West Ham United
- W 1.29 created, 0.19 conceded against Burnley
- W 2.53 created, 0.98 conceded against Crystal Palace
- W 1.88 created, 0.20 conceded against Coventry City
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
9 opportunities flagged3 won6 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa to win | 6.50 | +62.0% | Lost |
| Arsenal not to score | 6.50 | +39.4% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.33 | +35.4% | Lost |
| Arsenal at most 1 goal | 2.20 | +26.4% | Won |
| Aston Villa 2+ goals | 4.33 | +22.0% | Lost |
| Aston Villa to score | 1.67 | +13.0% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | +8.8% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | +5.2% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.00 | +0.6% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 24.9% | 14.6% | +10.3 pp | 4.01 |
| Draw | 31.2% | 22.0% | +9.3 pp | 3.20 |
| Arsenal | 43.8% | 63.4% | −19.6 pp | 2.28 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa to score | 67.8% | 55.7% | +12.0 pp | 1.48 |
| Aston Villa not to score | 32.2% | 44.3% | −12.0 pp | 3.10 |
| Arsenal to score | 78.6% | 85.4% | −6.8 pp | 1.27 |
| Arsenal not to score | 21.4% | 14.6% | +6.8 pp | 4.66 |
| Both teams to score | 55.1% | 50.0% | +5.1 pp | 1.82 |
| Both teams not to score | 44.9% | 50.0% | −5.1 pp | 2.23 |
| Aston Villa 2+ goals | 28.2% | 21.7% | +6.5 pp | 3.55 |
| Aston Villa at most 1 goal | 71.8% | 78.3% | −6.5 pp | 1.39 |
| Arsenal 2+ goals | 42.5% | 57.7% | −15.1 pp | 2.35 |
| Arsenal at most 1 goal | 57.5% | 42.3% | +15.1 pp | 1.74 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.8% | 76.2% | −1.3 pp | 1.34 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25.2% | 23.8% | +1.3 pp | 3.98 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.6% | 52.6% | −7.0 pp | 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.4% | 47.4% | +7.0 pp | 1.84 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Aston Villa sample
- 20 matches
- Arsenal sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 10 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 10 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.