Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 17:00
25d 2h to kick-offNK Celje – NK Nafta Lendava 1903
Model updated 6 October, 12:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- NK Celje
- 53%
- Draw
- 25%
- NK Nafta Lendava 1903
- 22%
| NK Celje | Draw | NK Nafta Lendava 1903 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.87 | 3.99 | 4.65 |
- Total goals
- 3.27
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66%
- Both teams to score
- 68%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans NK Celje
53% NK Celje to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 9th
- NK Celje attack v NK Nafta Lendava 1903 defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 4th
- NK Celje defence v NK Nafta Lendava 1903 attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.58 vs +0.17
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.00 – 1.28
- NK Celje v NK Nafta Lendava 1903
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | NK Celje | NK Nafta Lendava 1903 |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.59 · 3rd | (better) 1.76 · 1st |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.05 · 2nd | 1.70 · 7th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.54 · 2nd | +0.05 · 5th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.78 · 2nd | 1.37 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.58 | +0.17 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- NK Celje clean sheet
- 25%
- NK Celje 2+ goals
- 62%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 34%
- Both teams to score: no
- 32%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.4%
- 2:1
- 11.0%
- 2:0
- 7.4%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NK Celje sample
- 20 matches
- NK Nafta Lendava 1903 sample
- 11 matches
- Home xG sample · NK Celje
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · NK Nafta Lendava 1903
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 12:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.