Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 17:30
33d 18h to kick-offFK Krasnodar – CSKA Moscow
Model updated 4 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FK Krasnodar
- 61%
- Draw
- 23%
- CSKA Moscow
- 16%
| FK Krasnodar | Draw | CSKA Moscow | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.64 | 4.38 | 6.23 |
- Total goals
- 3.31
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66%
- Both teams to score
- 65%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FK Krasnodar
61% FK Krasnodar to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 13th
- FK Krasnodar attack v CSKA Moscow defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 8th
- FK Krasnodar defence v CSKA Moscow attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.70 vs -0.34
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.18 – 1.13
- FK Krasnodar v CSKA Moscow
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FK Krasnodar | CSKA Moscow |
|---|---|---|
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.70 | -0.34 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- FK Krasnodar clean sheet
- 30%
- FK Krasnodar 2+ goals
- 66%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 34%
- Both teams to score: no
- 35%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 11.2%
- 1:1
- 10.6%
- 2:0
- 8.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Krasnodar sample
- 20 matches
- CSKA Moscow sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FK Krasnodar
- 0 matches
- Away xG sample · CSKA Moscow
- 0 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.