Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 18:30
21d 17h to kick-offAris Thessaloniki – Atromitos Athens
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Aris Thessaloniki
- 46%
- Draw
- 30%
- Atromitos Athens
- 24%
| Aris Thessaloniki | Draw | Atromitos Athens | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.16 | 3.33 | 4.23 |
- Total goals
- 2.58
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Aris Thessaloniki
46% Aris Thessaloniki to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 6th
- Aris Thessaloniki attack v Atromitos Athens defence
- Defence
- 8th vs 7th
- Aris Thessaloniki defence v Atromitos Athens attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.13 vs -0.12
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.52 – 1.06
- Aris Thessaloniki v Atromitos Athens
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Aris Thessaloniki | Atromitos Athens |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.52 · 5th | 0.91 · 11th |
| xGA / match | 1.81 · 14th | (better) 1.53 · 10th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.28 · 8th | -0.62 · 11th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.39 · 6th | 1.02 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.13 | (better) -0.12 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- Aris Thessaloniki clean sheet
- 32%
- Aris Thessaloniki 2+ goals
- 46%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.4%
- 2:1
- 11.0%
- 1:0
- 9.1%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Aris Thessaloniki sample
- 20 matches
- Atromitos Athens sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Aris Thessaloniki
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Atromitos Athens
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.