Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 18:30
13d 17h to kick-offAtromitos Athens – AEK Athens
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Atromitos Athens
- 24%
- Draw
- 31%
- AEK Athens
- 45%
| Atromitos Athens | Draw | AEK Athens | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 4.19 | 3.26 | 2.20 |
- Total goals
- 2.49
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score
- 55%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans AEK Athens
45% AEK Athens to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 6th
- AEK Athens attack v Atromitos Athens defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 7th
- AEK Athens defence v Atromitos Athens attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.92 vs -0.12
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.03 – 1.46
- Atromitos Athens v AEK Athens
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Atromitos Athens | AEK Athens |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.91 · 11th | (better) 2.02 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | 1.53 · 10th | (better) 0.95 · 4th |
| xGD / match | -0.62 · 11th | (better) +1.07 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 1.02 · 10th | (better) 1.96 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.12 | (better) +0.92 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- AEK Athens clean sheet
- 33%
- AEK Athens 2+ goals
- 44%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score: no
- 45%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.8%
- 1:2
- 10.8%
- 0:1
- 9.7%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Atromitos Athens sample
- 20 matches
- AEK Athens sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Atromitos Athens
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · AEK Athens
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.