Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 14:00
27d 14h to kick-offBaşakşehir FK – Samsunspor
Model updated 5 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Başakşehir FK
- 49%
- Draw
- 29%
- Samsunspor
- 22%
| Başakşehir FK | Draw | Samsunspor | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.02 | 3.46 | 4.61 |
- Total goals
- 2.68
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Başakşehir FK
49% Başakşehir FK to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 14th
- Başakşehir FK attack v Samsunspor defence
- Defence
- 15th vs 11th
- Başakşehir FK defence v Samsunspor attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.25 vs -0.37
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.63 – 1.05
- Başakşehir FK v Samsunspor
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Başakşehir FK | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.63 · 7th | 1.15 · 12th |
| xGA / match | 1.88 · 15th | (better) 1.53 · 11th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.25 · 11th | -0.37 · 15th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.40 · 8th | 1.02 · 15th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.25 | -0.37 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Başakşehir FK clean sheet
- 32%
- Başakşehir FK 2+ goals
- 50%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.7%
- 2:1
- 11.3%
- 2:0
- 9.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Başakşehir FK sample
- 20 matches
- Samsunspor sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Başakşehir FK
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Samsunspor
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.