Monday, 02/11/2026 at 16:30
Full timeFC Voluntari 1:2 FC Farul Constanța
FC Farul Constanța were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was FC Voluntari's attack: 2.91 xG against 1.59 projected (+1.32). FC Farul Constanța produced 0.80 xG against 1.76 projected (−0.96).
The model against the result
- FC Voluntari
- 33%
- Draw
- 27%
- FC Farul Constanța
- 40% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Projected vs produced
FC Voluntari produced 1.32 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 28
- 4
- On target
- 8
- 2
- Inside the box
- 15
- 2
- xG per shot
- 0.10
- 0.20
Recent form
1.25 xG created 2.42 xGA
- W 1.21 created, 2.70 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
- L 1.09 created, 1.93 conceded against FC Rapid București
- L 1.43 created, 2.49 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj
- L 1.70 created, 2.58 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
- L 0.76 created, 3.04 conceded against FCSB
- L 1.32 created, 1.76 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
1.54 xG created 1.65 xGA
- D 1.77 created, 0.53 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj
- W 2.07 created, 1.98 conceded against UTA Arad
- L 1.42 created, 2.74 conceded against FC Dinamo București
- W 1.37 created, 1.64 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
- L 0.78 created, 1.37 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
- W 1.81 created, 1.62 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
7 qualified edges flagged6 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Voluntari 2+ goals | 2.50 | +21.4% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | +15.7% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | +14.7% | Won |
| FC Farul Constanța 2+ goals | 2.00 | +8.4% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | +7.6% | Won |
| FC Voluntari to score | 1.30 | +6.6% | Won |
| FC Farul Constanța to score | 1.20 | +2.0% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Voluntari | 33.0% | 29.7% | +3.3 pp | 3.03 |
| Draw | 26.5% | 27.9% | −1.3 pp | 3.77 |
| FC Farul Constanța | 40.5% | 42.4% | −2.0 pp | 2.47 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Voluntari to score | 82.0% | 72.3% | +9.6 pp | 1.22 |
| FC Voluntari not to score | 18.0% | 27.7% | −9.6 pp | 5.55 |
| FC Farul Constanța to score | 85.0% | 78.3% | +6.7 pp | 1.18 |
| FC Farul Constanța not to score | 15.0% | 21.7% | −6.7 pp | 6.67 |
| Both teams to score | 71.0% | 57.7% | +13.4 pp | 1.41 |
| Both teams not to score | 29.0% | 42.3% | −13.4 pp | 3.45 |
| FC Voluntari 2+ goals | 48.6% | 37.5% | +11.1 pp | 2.06 |
| FC Voluntari at most 1 goal | 51.4% | 62.5% | −11.1 pp | 1.94 |
| FC Farul Constanța 2+ goals | 54.2% | 46.3% | +7.8 pp | 1.85 |
| FC Farul Constanța at most 1 goal | 45.8% | 53.7% | −7.8 pp | 2.18 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.1% | 76.6% | +11.5 pp | 1.14 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 11.9% | 23.4% | −11.5 pp | 8.39 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.0% | 54.6% | +12.4 pp | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33.0% | 45.4% | −12.4 pp | 3.03 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Voluntari sample
- 14 matches
- FC Farul Constanța sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 59 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.