Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 17:00
Full timeFK Partizan 3:0 FK Zemun
FK Partizan were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 84%. They won 3–0. The biggest difference was FK Zemun's attack: 0.57 xG against 0.88 projected (−0.31).
The model against the result
- FK Partizan
- 84% What happened
- Draw
- 11%
- FK Zemun
- 5%
Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Projected vs produced
FK Zemun produced 0.31 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 22
- 7
- On target
- 9
- 3
- Inside the box
- 15
- 5
- xG per shot
- 0.16
- 0.08
Recent form
1.82 xG created 1.60 xGA
- L 1.16 created, 1.96 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda
- L 2.02 created, 1.55 conceded against FK Vojvodina
- D 3.40 created, 2.02 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
- W 0.51 created, 1.58 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
- L 0.80 created, 1.27 conceded against FK Železničar Pančevo
- L 3.05 created, 1.19 conceded against FK Čukarički
0.74 xG created 3.13 xGA
- L 0.78 created, 4.89 conceded against FK Vojvodina
- D 0.20 created, 3.62 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
- D 0.60 created, 3.40 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
- L 0.96 created, 3.42 conceded against FK Železničar Pančevo
- L 1.22 created, 2.85 conceded against FK Čukarički
- W 0.66 created, 0.60 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 qualified edges flagged4 won3 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Zemun 2+ goals | 6.00 | +29.3% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 2.10 | +26.4% | Lost |
| FK Zemun to score | 2.00 | +22.7% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.36 | +10.3% | Won |
| FK Partizan 2+ goals | 1.25 | +7.7% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.10 | +3.5% | Won |
| FK Partizan to score | 1.04 | +1.0% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Partizan | 84.3% | 79.3% | +5.0 pp | 1.19 |
| Draw | 11.1% | 14.4% | −3.3 pp | 9.01 |
| FK Zemun | 4.6% | 6.3% | −1.7 pp | 21.85 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Partizan to score | 97.2% | 89.6% | +7.5 pp | 1.03 |
| FK Partizan not to score | 2.8% | 10.4% | −7.5 pp | 35.22 |
| FK Zemun to score | 61.4% | 46.3% | +15.0 pp | 1.63 |
| FK Zemun not to score | 38.6% | 53.7% | −15.0 pp | 2.59 |
| Both teams to score | 60.2% | 44.3% | +15.9 pp | 1.66 |
| Both teams not to score | 39.8% | 55.7% | −15.9 pp | 2.51 |
| FK Partizan 2+ goals | 86.2% | 75.0% | +11.2 pp | 1.16 |
| FK Partizan at most 1 goal | 13.8% | 25.0% | −11.2 pp | 7.24 |
| FK Zemun 2+ goals | 21.6% | 15.6% | +5.9 pp | 4.64 |
| FK Zemun at most 1 goal | 78.4% | 84.4% | −5.9 pp | 1.27 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 94.1% | 85.5% | +8.6 pp | 1.06 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 5.9% | 14.5% | −8.6 pp | 16.95 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80.9% | 68.7% | +12.1 pp | 1.24 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 19.1% | 31.3% | −12.1 pp | 5.22 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Partizan sample
- 20 matches
- FK Zemun sample
- 13 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.