Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 17:00
26d 3h to kick-offOFK Beograd – FK Vojvodina
Model updated 6 October, 12:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- OFK Beograd
- 32%
- Draw
- 28%
- FK Vojvodina
- 40%
| OFK Beograd | Draw | FK Vojvodina | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.12 | 3.56 | 2.51 |
- Total goals
- 3.06
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams to score
- 67%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FK Vojvodina
40% FK Vojvodina to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 9th
- FK Vojvodina attack v OFK Beograd defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 11th
- FK Vojvodina defence v OFK Beograd attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.68 vs -0.62
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.44 – 1.61
- OFK Beograd v FK Vojvodina
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | OFK Beograd | FK Vojvodina |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.29 · 11th | (better) 2.77 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | 2.09 · 11th | (better) 1.49 · 7th |
| xGD / match | -0.80 · 11th | (better) +1.28 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 0.86 · 11th | (better) 1.93 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.62 | (better) +1.68 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- FK Vojvodina clean sheet
- 21%
- FK Vojvodina 2+ goals
- 49%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 39%
- Both teams to score: no
- 33%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.2%
- 1:2
- 10.1%
- 2:1
- 8.9%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- OFK Beograd sample
- 20 matches
- FK Vojvodina sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · OFK Beograd
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · FK Vojvodina
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 12:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.