xgEdge

Kicked off · odds locked
Match preview · Ukrainian Premier League

FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv – Bukovyna Chernivtsi

FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv Home 11th in Ukrainian Premier League
1.43
Bukovyna Chernivtsi Away 13th in Ukrainian Premier League
1.56 Projected xG
FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
33%
Mkt 34%
Fair 3.06
Draw
28%
Mkt 28%
Fair 3.51
Bukovyna Chernivtsi
39%
Mkt 38%
Fair 2.57

No qualified edge

The largest edge is Over 2.5 goals at +15.8%, and the Betting section's rule stops it: Kicked off. How this is decided →

Data coverage · thin
  • FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv 11/20
  • Bukovyna Chernivtsi 9/20
  • Model updated 31 October, 09:30
  • Top odds updated 31 October, 06:00

One of these teams has only 9 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Where the model disagrees with the market

Largest gap per question. Margin removed. Bet365 prices, locked at kick-off.

  • Over 2.5 goals Goals
    Edge +15.8%
    Model 59.4%
    Market 48.7%
    Fair odds 1.68 Bookmaker odds 1.95
    Model skill: -0.89%
  • Both teams to score Both teams to score
    Edge +13.7%
    Model 65.9%
    Market 53.7%
    Fair odds 1.52 Bookmaker odds 1.73
    Model skill: -0.43%
  • Bukovyna Chernivtsi 2+ goals Goals by team
    Edge +13.6%
    Model 47.8%
    Market 39.2%
    Fair odds 2.09 Bookmaker odds 2.38
    Model skill: +2.61%
  • FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv 2+ goals Goals by team
    Edge +7.6%
    Model 43.0%
    Market 37.5%
    Fair odds 2.32 Bookmaker odds 2.50
    Model skill: +3.62%
Hide the other markets

Match result

  • Draw Match result
    Edge -7.4%
    Model 28.5%
    Market 27.5%
    Fair odds 3.51 Bookmaker odds 3.25
    Model skill: -1.04%
  • Bukovyna Chernivtsi to win Match result
    Edge -8.7%
    Model 38.9%
    Market 38.1%
    Fair odds 2.57 Bookmaker odds 2.35
    Model skill: +7.20%
  • FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv to win Match result
    Edge -15.2%
    Model 32.6%
    Market 34.4%
    Fair odds 3.06 Bookmaker odds 2.60
    Model skill: +7.19%

Model against the market

Draw

Model
28.5%
Market, margin removed
27.5%
Probability gap
+1.0 pp
Edge
−7.4%
Fair odds
3.51
Market odds
3.25 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins
3.68
Bookmaker margin
11.8%

Bukovyna Chernivtsi to win

Model
38.9%
Market, margin removed
38.1%
Probability gap
+0.8 pp
Edge
−8.7%
Fair odds
2.57
Market odds
2.35 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins
2.70
Bookmaker margin
11.8%

FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv to win

Model
32.6%
Market, margin removed
34.4%
Probability gap
−1.8 pp
Edge
−15.2%
Fair odds
3.06
Market odds
2.60 Bet365
Price at which a 5% edge begins
3.22
Bookmaker margin
11.8%

Goals

  • Over 2.5 goals Goals
    Edge +15.8%
    Model 59.4%
    Market 48.7%
    Fair odds 1.68 Bookmaker odds 1.95
    Model skill: -0.89%
  • Over 1.5 goals Goals
    Edge +9.1%
    Model 83.9%
    Market 72.3%
    Fair odds 1.19 Bookmaker odds 1.30
    Model skill: -0.01%
  • Under 2.5 goals Goals
    Edge -24.8%
    Model 40.6%
    Market 51.3%
    Fair odds 2.46 Bookmaker odds 1.85
    Model skill: -0.89%
  • Under 1.5 goals Goals
    Edge -45.4%
    Model 16.1%
    Market 27.7%
    Fair odds 6.22 Bookmaker odds 3.40
    Model skill: -0.01%

Both teams to score

  • Both teams to score Both teams to score
    Edge +13.7%
    Model 65.9%
    Market 53.7%
    Fair odds 1.52 Bookmaker odds 1.73
    Model skill: -0.43%
  • Both teams not to score Both teams to score
    Edge -31.7%
    Model 34.1%
    Market 46.3%
    Fair odds 2.93 Bookmaker odds 2.00
    Model skill: -0.43%

Goals by team

  • Bukovyna Chernivtsi 2+ goals Goals by team
    Edge +13.6%
    Model 47.8%
    Market 39.2%
    Fair odds 2.09 Bookmaker odds 2.38
    Model skill: +2.61%
  • FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv 2+ goals Goals by team
    Edge +7.6%
    Model 43.0%
    Market 37.5%
    Fair odds 2.32 Bookmaker odds 2.50
    Model skill: +3.62%
  • Bukovyna Chernivtsi to score Goals by team
    Edge +6.2%
    Model 81.7%
    Market 72.3%
    Fair odds 1.22 Bookmaker odds 1.30
    Model skill: +2.56%
  • FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv to score Goals by team
    Edge +2.3%
    Model 78.7%
    Market 72.3%
    Fair odds 1.27 Bookmaker odds 1.30
    Model skill: +3.77%
  • FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv at most 1 goal Goals by team
    Edge -14.6%
    Model 57.0%
    Market 62.5%
    Fair odds 1.76 Bookmaker odds 1.50
    Model skill: +3.62%
  • Bukovyna Chernivtsi at most 1 goal Goals by team
    Edge -20.0%
    Model 52.2%
    Market 60.8%
    Fair odds 1.92 Bookmaker odds 1.53
    Model skill: +2.61%
  • FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv not to score Goals by team
    Edge -27.5%
    Model 21.3%
    Market 27.7%
    Fair odds 4.69 Bookmaker odds 3.40
    Model skill: +3.77%
  • Bukovyna Chernivtsi not to score Goals by team
    Edge -37.8%
    Model 18.3%
    Market 27.7%
    Fair odds 5.47 Bookmaker odds 3.40
    Model skill: +2.56%

Model skill is how much the model beat simply knowing how often each outcome happens, when 7 competitions were replayed (measured 17/08/2026). A market without skill above zero never qualifies, and skill is not the chance a bet wins. How that is measured →

Got different odds? Check your price →

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match
FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv xG 0.67 xGA 1.49
  • D 0.34 created, 0.46 conceded against Chornomorets Odesa
  • L 0.23 created, 1.55 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr
  • W 1.46 created, 1.36 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
  • L 0.66 created, 2.20 conceded against Zoria Luhansk
  • L 0.60 created, 2.64 conceded against Metalist 1925
  • D 0.72 created, 0.70 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy
Bukovyna Chernivtsi xG 1.60 xGA 2.25
  • W 1.42 created, 2.62 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv
  • D 2.18 created, 2.19 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
  • D 2.31 created, 0.70 conceded against Zoria Luhansk
  • L 0.82 created, 3.04 conceded against Metalist 1925
  • D 0.72 created, 2.64 conceded against Polissya Zhytomyr
  • L 2.14 created, 2.31 conceded against Kudrivka

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Goals & scorelines

Total goals
2.99
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Both teams to score
66%
Bukovyna Chernivtsi 2+ goals
48%
Bukovyna Chernivtsi clean sheet
21%

Most likely scorelines

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.

1:1
13.6%
1:2
10.1%
2:1
9.1%

Why the model leans Bukovyna Chernivtsi, but not by much

Bukovyna Chernivtsi's attack and recent form carry the lean; its defence does not back it.

Attack
Favours Bukovyna Chernivtsi
5th vs 9th
Bukovyna Chernivtsi attack v FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv defence
Defence
Favours FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
15th vs 13th
Bukovyna Chernivtsi defence v FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv attack
Recent xG form
Favours Bukovyna Chernivtsi
-0.65 vs -0.82
xGD per match, last 6
How the model arrived here →

Team comparison

Overview Attack Defence Form Model

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv and Bukovyna Chernivtsi compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv Bukovyna Chernivtsi
xG / match 0.86 · 14th (better) 1.77 · 6th
xGA / match (better) 1.29 · 6th 2.11 · 14th
xGD / match -0.43 · 10th (better) -0.34 · 8th
xPts / match 1.05 · 11th (better) 1.24 · 8th
Last 6 xGD / match -0.82 (better) -0.65

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What the model doesn't know

It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.

Model details

· 1 warning

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