Friday, 23/10/2026 at 12:00
Kicked off · odds lockedVeres Rivne – Kolos Kovalivka
- Veres Rivne
- 35%
- Mkt 30% Market 30%
- Fair 2.85 Fair odds 2.85
- Draw
- 31%
- Mkt 29% Market 29%
- Fair 3.26 Fair odds 3.26
- Kolos Kovalivka
- 34%
- Mkt 41% Market 41%
- Fair 2.92 Fair odds 2.92
No qualified edge
The largest edge is Veres Rivne 2+ goals at +18.2%, and the Betting section's rule stops it: Kicked off. How this is decided →
- Veres Rivne 20/20
- Kolos Kovalivka 20/20
- Model updated 23 October, 12:30
- Top odds updated 23 October, 12:00
Where the model disagrees with the market
Largest gap per question. Margin removed. Bet365 prices, locked at kick-off.
Match result
Model against the market
Veres Rivne to win
- Model
- 35.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 29.7%
- Probability gap
- +5.4 pp
- Edge
- +5.3%
- Fair odds
- 2.85
- Market odds
- 3.00 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.99
- Bookmaker margin
- 12.1%
Draw
- Model
- 30.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 28.8%
- Probability gap
- +1.9 pp
- Edge
- −4.9%
- Fair odds
- 3.26
- Market odds
- 3.10 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.42
- Bookmaker margin
- 12.1%
Kolos Kovalivka to win
- Model
- 34.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 41.5%
- Probability gap
- −7.3 pp
- Edge
- −26.4%
- Fair odds
- 2.92
- Market odds
- 2.15 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.07
- Bookmaker margin
- 12.1%
Goals
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Model skill is how much the model beat simply knowing how often each outcome happens, when 7 competitions were replayed (measured 17/08/2026). A market without skill above zero never qualifies, and skill is not the chance a bet wins. How that is measured →
Recent form
- W 0.14 created, 0.36 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy
- D 0.87 created, 1.08 conceded against Zoria Luhansk
- D 1.31 created, 0.62 conceded against Karpaty Lviv
- W 1.51 created, 1.58 conceded against Kudrivka
- L 1.39 created, 2.56 conceded against Shakhtar Donetsk
- L 0.62 created, 1.62 conceded against Obolon Kyiv
- D 0.78 created, 0.25 conceded against Obolon Kyiv
- D 2.47 created, 0.83 conceded against FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
- L 1.13 created, 2.39 conceded against Karpaty Lviv
- W 1.96 created, 1.11 conceded against Kudrivka
- W 1.33 created, 1.46 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
- L 0.37 created, 2.37 conceded against Shakhtar Donetsk
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Goals & scorelines
- Total goals
- 2.65
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- Veres Rivne 2+ goals
- 39%
- Veres Rivne clean sheet
- 24%
Most likely scorelines
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- 1:1
- 15.5%
- 2:1
- 9.6%
- 1:2
- 9.4%
Why the model leans Veres Rivne, but not by much
Home advantage carries the lean to Veres Rivne: in Ukrainian Premier League, home sides score 1.15 times as many goals as visitors, and at most one of the three readings below backs Veres Rivne.
- Attack
- Favours Kolos Kovalivka
- 14th vs 8th
- Veres Rivne attack v Kolos Kovalivka defence
- Defence
- Favours Kolos Kovalivka
- 13th vs 12th
- Veres Rivne defence v Kolos Kovalivka attack
- Recent xG form
- Favours Kolos Kovalivka
- -0.33 vs -0.06
- xGD per match, last 6
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Veres Rivne | Kolos Kovalivka |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.93 · 13th | (better) 1.15 · 10th |
| xGA / match | 1.83 · 12th | (better) 1.56 · 10th |
| xGD / match | -0.90 · 12th | (better) -0.42 · 9th |
| xPts / match | 0.85 · 14th | (better) 1.13 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.33 | (better) -0.06 |
Head to head
Veres Rivne 0 Draws 1 Kolos Kovalivka 1
Got a different price?
Type your bookmaker's odds for any market and see their edge against the model.
How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
What the model doesn't know
It reads expected goals and nothing else — not the lineups, injuries or suspensions, what either side is playing for, the weather or a congested schedule.
Model details- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Veres Rivne sample
- 20 matches
- Kolos Kovalivka sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Veres Rivne
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Kolos Kovalivka
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 23/10/2026 at 12:30
- Odds updated
- 7 days ago · over a day old
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.