Sunday, 08/11/2026 at 15:00
34d 1h to kick-offZoria Luhansk – LNZ Cherkasy
Model updated 5 October, 12:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Zoria Luhansk
- 24%
- Draw
- 33%
- LNZ Cherkasy
- 43%
| Zoria Luhansk | Draw | LNZ Cherkasy | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 4.10 | 3.04 | 2.34 |
- Total goals
- 2.24
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39%
- Both teams to score
- 50%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans LNZ Cherkasy
43% LNZ Cherkasy to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 6th
- LNZ Cherkasy attack v Zoria Luhansk defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 11th
- LNZ Cherkasy defence v Zoria Luhansk attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.82 vs -0.29
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 0.94 – 1.29
- Zoria Luhansk v LNZ Cherkasy
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Zoria Luhansk | LNZ Cherkasy |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.15 · 11th | (better) 2.10 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 1.37 · 9th | (better) 1.26 · 7th |
| xGD / match | -0.22 · 9th | (better) +0.84 · 5th |
| xPts / match | 1.20 · 9th | (better) 1.64 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.29 | (better) +0.82 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 39% of the model's distribution.
- LNZ Cherkasy clean sheet
- 36%
- LNZ Cherkasy 2+ goals
- 38%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams to score: no
- 50%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.9%
- 0:1
- 11.4%
- 0:0
- 10.8%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Zoria Luhansk sample
- 20 matches
- LNZ Cherkasy sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Zoria Luhansk
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · LNZ Cherkasy
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 12:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.