Friday, 30/10/2026 at 19:30
26d 17h to kick-offGrazer AK 1902 – TSV Hartberg
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Grazer AK 1902
- 46%
- Draw
- 31%
- TSV Hartberg
- 23%
| Grazer AK 1902 | Draw | TSV Hartberg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.17 | 3.25 | 4.33 |
- Total goals
- 2.46
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score
- 54%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Grazer AK 1902
46% Grazer AK 1902 to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 11th
- Grazer AK 1902 attack v TSV Hartberg defence
- Defence
- 8th vs 12th
- Grazer AK 1902 defence v TSV Hartberg attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.50 vs -0.62
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.46 – 1.00
- Grazer AK 1902 v TSV Hartberg
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Grazer AK 1902 | TSV Hartberg |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.14 · 9th | 1.01 · 11th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.75 · 7th | 2.02 · 11th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.61 · 8th | -1.01 · 10th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.20 · 8th | 0.79 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.50 | -0.62 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Grazer AK 1902 clean sheet
- 34%
- Grazer AK 1902 2+ goals
- 44%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score: no
- 46%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.8%
- 2:1
- 10.8%
- 1:0
- 10.2%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Grazer AK 1902 sample
- 20 matches
- TSV Hartberg sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Grazer AK 1902
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · TSV Hartberg
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.