Birmingham City 2:2 Middlesbrough: xG & match report · Championship

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Championship

Birmingham City Home 1.23 xG · 16 shots

Middlesbrough Away 2.14 xG · 15 shots

22 Middlesbrough had the better chances, but it finished level

Goals

45' Maximilian Arfsten Middlesbrough · 0.13 xG chance 0–1
55' Liam Millar Birmingham City · 0.13 xG chance 1–1
59' Riley McGree (o.g.) Birmingham City 2–1
88' Adilson Malanda Middlesbrough · 0.60 xG chance 2–2

The shots behind it

Birmingham City Middlesbrough

Shots: 16; 15
On target: 6; 4
Inside the box: 7; 13
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.14
Open play xG: 0.87; 0.90
Set-piece xG: 0.27; 1.22
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.15 for Birmingham City and 2.10 for Middlesbrough.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

31 shots · 3.26 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Birmingham City
Middlesbrough
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Birmingham City

1.89 xG created 1.41 xGA

D 1.98 created, 1.43 conceded against Bristol City
W 1.62 created, 1.42 conceded against Wrexham
D 1.55 created, 1.02 conceded against Southampton
D 1.39 created, 2.47 conceded against Wolverhampton
L 1.63 created, 1.01 conceded against Norwich City
W 3.17 created, 1.11 conceded against Derby County

Middlesbrough

1.87 xG created 1.22 xGA

L 1.43 created, 0.91 conceded against Blackburn Rovers
W 2.46 created, 1.40 conceded against West Bromwich Albion
D 1.22 created, 0.64 conceded against Burnley
W 2.53 created, 1.03 conceded against Queens Park Rangers
W 2.07 created, 1.62 conceded against Norwich City
D 1.52 created, 1.69 conceded against Millwall

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Birmingham City: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.