Derby County 1:2 Birmingham City: xG & match report · Championship

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 13:30

Full time

Match report · Championship

Derby County Home 1.11 xG · 18 shots

Birmingham City Away 3.17 xG · 18 shots

12 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

40' Bobby Clark Derby County · 0.10 xG chance 1–0
42' Carlos Vicente Birmingham City · 0.14 xG chance 1–1
64' Seung Ho Paik Birmingham City · 0.99 xG chance 1–2

The shots behind it

Derby County Birmingham City

Shots: 18; 18
On target: 2; 8
Inside the box: 10; 14
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.18
Open play xG: 0.58; 1.80
Set-piece xG: 0.42; 1.38
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.02 for Derby County and 3.12 for Birmingham City.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

36 shots · 4.19 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Derby County
Birmingham City
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Derby County

0.88 xG created 1.83 xGA

L 1.00 created, 0.97 conceded against Charlton Athletic
D 1.62 created, 1.98 conceded against Cardiff City
L 0.70 created, 3.00 conceded against Swansea City
W 0.55 created, 0.84 conceded against Portsmouth
L 0.11 created, 3.79 conceded against West Ham United
L 1.27 created, 0.38 conceded against West Bromwich Albion

Birmingham City

1.49 xG created 1.27 xGA

D 0.77 created, 0.29 conceded against Sheffield United
D 1.98 created, 1.43 conceded against Bristol City
W 1.62 created, 1.42 conceded against Wrexham
D 1.55 created, 1.02 conceded against Southampton
D 1.39 created, 2.47 conceded against Wolverhampton
L 1.63 created, 1.01 conceded against Norwich City

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Derby County: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.