Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 13:30
16d 16h to kick-offBristol City – Norwich City
Model updated 21 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Bristol City
- 36%
- Draw
- 32%
- Norwich City
- 32%
| Bristol City | Draw | Norwich City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.79 | 3.09 | 3.14 |
- Total goals
- 2.41
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score
- 55%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
36% Bristol City to win
- Attack
- 17th vs 10th
- Bristol City attack v Norwich City defence
- Defence
- 12th vs 12th
- Bristol City defence v Norwich City attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.53 vs -0.89
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.24 – 1.17
- Bristol City v Norwich City
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Bristol City | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.32 · 13th | (better) 1.47 · 10th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.35 · 10th | 1.60 · 17th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.03 · 11th | -0.14 · 14th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.44 · 11th | 1.26 · 14th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.53 | -0.89 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Bristol City clean sheet
- 28%
- Bristol City 2+ goals
- 36%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score: no
- 45%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.7%
- 2:1
- 9.5%
- 0:0
- 9.3%
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How the edge is calculated
Edge is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Bristol City sample
- 20 matches
- Norwich City sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Bristol City
- 6 matches
- Away xG sample · Norwich City
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 21/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.